article.ipynb

Kernel: Python 3 (ipykernel)

---

title: La Palma Earthquakes author:

• name: Steve Purves orcid: 0000-0002-0760-5497 corresponding: true email: [email protected] roles:

  • Investigation

  • Project administration

  • Software

  • Visualization affiliations:

  • Curvenote

• name: Rowan Cockett orcid: 0000-0002-7859-8394 corresponding: false roles: [] affiliations:

  • Curvenote license: CC BY-SA 4.0 keywords:

• La Palma

• Earthquakes date: 2022-05-11 abstract: | In September 2021, a significant jump in seismic activity on the island of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain) signaled the start of a volcanic crisis that still continues at the time of writing. Earthquake data is continually collected and published by the Instituto Geográphico Nacional (IGN). We have created an accessible dataset from this and completed preliminary data analysis which shows seismicity originating at two distinct depths, consistent with the model of a two reservoir system feeding the currently very active volcano. keypoints:

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• They are specific to this PDF template, so they will not appear in other exports citation: container-title: Notebooks Now! draft: false bibliography: references.bib

---

Introduction

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La Palma is one of the west most islands in the Volcanic Archipelago of the Canary Islands, a Spanish territory situated is the Atlantic Ocean where at their closest point are 100km from the African coast @fig-map. The island is one of the youngest, remains active and is still in the island forming stage.

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{#fig-map align="center" width="100%"}

La Palma has been constructed by various phases of volcanism, the most recent and currently active being the Cumbre Vieja volcano, a north-south volcanic ridge that constitutes the southern half of the island.

Eruption History

A number of eruptions were recorded since the colonization of the islands by Europeans in the late 1400s, these are summarised in @tbl-history.

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Name	Year
Current	2021
Teneguía	1971
Nambroque	1949
El Charco	1712
Volcán San Antonio	1677
Volcán San Martin	1646
Tajuya near El Paso	1585
Montaña Quemada	1492

: Recent historic eruptions on La Palma {#tbl-history}

This equates to an eruption on average every 79 years up until the 1971 event. The probability of a future eruption can be modeled by a Poisson distribution @eq-poisson.

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$$p(x)=\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^{x}}{x !}$$

Where $\lambda$ is the number of eruptions per year, $\lambda=\frac{1}{79}$ in this case. The probability of a future eruption in the next $t$ years can be calculated by:

$$p_e = 1-\mathrm{e}^{-t \lambda}$$

So following the 1971 eruption the probability of an eruption in the following 50 years — the period ending this year — was 0.469. After the event, the number of eruptions per year moves to $\lambda=\frac{1}{75}$ and the probability of a further eruption within the next 50 years (2022-2071) rises to 0.487 and in the next 100 years, this rises again to 0.736.

Magma Reservoirs

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Studies of the magma systems feeding the volcano, such as @marrero2019 has proposed that there are two main magma reservoirs feeding the Cumbre Vieja volcano; one in the mantle (30-40km depth) which charges and in turn feeds a shallower crustal reservoir (10-20km depth).

{#fig-reservoirs align="center" width="100%"}

In this paper, we look at recent seismicity data to see if we can see evidence of such a system action, see @fig-reservoirs.

Dataset

All data used in the notebook should be present in the data/ folder so notebooks may be executed in place with no additional input.

The earthquake dataset used in our analysis was generated from the IGN web portal this is public data released under a permissive license. Data recorded using the network of Seismic Monitoring Stations on the island. A web scraping script was developed to pull data into a machine-readable form for analysis. That code tool is available on GitHub along with a copy of recently updated data.

Main Timeline Figure

Code cells may be seamlessly interleaved with markdown cells. There are a variety of execution options to control the behavior of code cells - learn more in Quarto's documentation on execution options.

import pandas as pd
import matplotlib
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
import seaborn as sns
import numpy as np
sns.set_theme(style="whitegrid")

def make_category_columns(df):
    df['Depth'] = 'Shallow (<18km)'
    df.loc[(df['Depth(km)'] >= 18) & (df['Depth(km)'] <= 28), 'Depth'] = 'Interchange (18km>x>28km)'
    df.loc[df['Depth(km)'] >= 28, 'Depth'] = 'Deep (>28km)'
    
    df['Mag'] = 0
    df.loc[(df['Magnitude'] >= 1) & (df['Magnitude'] <= 2), 'Mag'] = 1
    df.loc[(df['Magnitude'] >= 2) & (df['Magnitude'] <= 3), 'Mag'] = 2
    df.loc[(df['Magnitude'] >= 3) & (df['Magnitude'] <= 4), 'Mag'] = 3
    df.loc[(df['Magnitude'] >= 4) & (df['Magnitude'] <= 5), 'Mag'] = 4    
    
    return df

Visualising Long term earthquake data

Data taken directly from the IGN Catalog

Supported cell outputs below include pandas dataframe, raw text output, matplotlib plot, and seaborn plot.

#| output: false

df_ign = pd.read_csv('./data/lapalma_ign.csv')
df_ign = make_category_columns(df_ign)
df_ign.head()

df_ign['DateTime'] = pd.to_datetime(df_ign['Date'] + ' ' + df_ign['Time'])
df_ign['DateTime'];

df_ign_early = df_ign[df_ign['DateTime'] < '2021-09-11']
df_ign_pre = df_ign[(df_ign['DateTime'] >= '2021-09-11')&(df_ign['DateTime'] < '2021-09-19 14:13:00')]
df_ign_phase1 = df_ign[(df_ign['DateTime'] >= '2021-09-19 14:13:00')&(df_ign['DateTime'] < '2021-10-01')]
df_ign_phase2 = df_ign[(df_ign['DateTime'] >= '2021-10-01')&(df_ign['DateTime'] < '2021-12-01')]
df_ign_phase3 = df_ign[(df_ign['DateTime'] >= '2021-12-01')&(df_ign['DateTime'] <= '2021-12-31')]

df_erupt = df_ign[(df_ign['Date'] < '2022-01-01') & (df_ign['Date'] > '2021-09-11')]

df_erupt_1 = df_erupt[df_erupt['Magnitude'] < 1.0]
df_erupt_2 = df_erupt[(df_erupt['Magnitude'] >= 1.0)&(df_erupt['Magnitude'] < 2.0)]
df_erupt_3 = df_erupt[(df_erupt['Magnitude'] >= 2.0)&(df_erupt['Magnitude'] < 3.0)]
df_erupt_4 = df_erupt[(df_erupt['Magnitude'] >= 3.0)&(df_erupt['Magnitude'] < 4.0)]
df_erupt_5 = df_erupt[df_erupt['Magnitude'] > 4.0]

tab20_colors = (
    (0.12156862745098039, 0.4666666666666667,  0.7058823529411765  ),  # 1f77b4
    (0.6823529411764706,  0.7803921568627451,  0.9098039215686274  ),  # aec7e8
    (1.0,                 0.4980392156862745,  0.054901960784313725),  # ff7f0e
    (1.0,                 0.7333333333333333,  0.47058823529411764 ),  # ffbb78
    (0.17254901960784313, 0.6274509803921569,  0.17254901960784313 ),  # 2ca02c
    (0.596078431372549,   0.8745098039215686,  0.5411764705882353  ),  # 98df8a
    (0.8392156862745098,  0.15294117647058825, 0.1568627450980392  ),  # d62728
    (1.0,                 0.596078431372549,   0.5882352941176471  ),  # ff9896
    (0.5803921568627451,  0.403921568627451,   0.7411764705882353  ),  # 9467bd
    (0.7725490196078432,  0.6901960784313725,  0.8352941176470589  ),  # c5b0d5
    (0.5490196078431373,  0.33725490196078434, 0.29411764705882354 ),  # 8c564b
    (0.7686274509803922,  0.611764705882353,   0.5803921568627451  ),  # c49c94
    (0.8901960784313725,  0.4666666666666667,  0.7607843137254902  ),  # e377c2
    (0.9686274509803922,  0.7137254901960784,  0.8235294117647058  ),  # f7b6d2
    (0.4980392156862745,  0.4980392156862745,  0.4980392156862745  ),  # 7f7f7f
    (0.7803921568627451,  0.7803921568627451,  0.7803921568627451  ),  # c7c7c7
    (0.7372549019607844,  0.7411764705882353,  0.13333333333333333 ),  # bcbd22
    (0.8588235294117647,  0.8588235294117647,  0.5529411764705883  ),  # dbdb8d
    (0.09019607843137255, 0.7450980392156863,  0.8117647058823529  ),  # 17becf
    (0.6196078431372549,  0.8549019607843137,  0.8980392156862745),    # 9edae5
)

#| label: fig-timeline
#| fig-cap: Earthquake data over time (n=5465) to understand their distributions spatially, by depth, by magnitude and in time.

from matplotlib.patches import Rectangle

import datetime as dt
from matplotlib.dates import date2num, num2date

matplotlib.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = "Helvetica"
matplotlib.rcParams['font.family'] = "sans-serif"
matplotlib.rcParams['xtick.labelsize'] = 14
matplotlib.rcParams['ytick.labelsize'] = 14
matplotlib.rcParams['ytick.labelleft'] = True
matplotlib.rcParams['ytick.labelright'] = True

%matplotlib inline
fig = matplotlib.pyplot.figure(figsize=(24,12))
fig.tight_layout()
# Creating axis
# add_axes([xmin,ymin,dx,dy])
ax_min = fig.add_axes([0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.01])
ax_min.axis('off')
ax_max = fig.add_axes([0.99, 0.99, 0.01, 0.01])
ax_max.axis('off')

ax_timeline = fig.add_axes([0.04, 0.1, 0.92, 0.85])
ax_timeline.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
ax_timeline.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
ax_timeline.spines["left"].set_visible(False)
ax_timeline.grid(axis='x')


ax_timeline.axvline(x=dt.datetime(2021, 9, 19, 14, 13), ymin=0.075, ymax=0.98, color='r', linewidth=3)


def make_scatter(df, c, alpha=0.8):
    M = 3*np.exp2(1.3*df['Magnitude'])
    return ax_timeline.scatter(df['DateTime'], df['Depth(km)'], s=M, c=c, alpha=alpha, edgecolor='black', linewidth=0.5, zorder=2);

# make_scatter(df_erupt, c=tab20c_colors[-1])
points_1 = make_scatter(df_erupt_1, c=[tab20_colors[12]], alpha=0.3)
points_2 = make_scatter(df_erupt_2, c=[tab20_colors[16]], alpha=0.4)
points_3 = make_scatter(df_erupt_3, c=[tab20_colors[4]], alpha=0.5)
points_4 = make_scatter(df_erupt_4, c=[tab20_colors[2]], alpha=0.6)
points_5 = make_scatter(df_erupt_5, c=[tab20_colors[6]], alpha=0.8)

ax_timeline.tick_params(axis='x', labelrotation=0, bottom=True)
ax_timeline.set_ylabel('')
ax_timeline.yaxis.set_ticks_position('both')
ax_timeline.yaxis.set_ticks_position('both')

xticks = ax_timeline.get_xticks()
new_xticks = [date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-11')),
    date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-19 14:13:00'))]
new_xticks = np.append(new_xticks, xticks[2:-1])
ax_timeline.set_xticks(new_xticks)

ax_timeline.invert_yaxis()
ax_timeline.spines['bottom'].set_position(('data', 45))
ax_timeline.margins(tight=True, x=0)
ax_timeline.legend(
    [points_1, points_2, points_3, points_4, points_5],
    ['0 < M <= 1','1 < M <= 2','2 < M <= 3','3 < M <= 4','M > 4'],
    loc='lower left', bbox_to_anchor=(0.01, 0.1, 0.15, 0.1), fancybox=True,
    borderpad=1.0, labelspacing=1, mode="expand", title="Event Magnitude (M)",
    fontsize=14, title_fontsize=14, framealpha=1)

ax_timeline.set_ylim(ax_timeline.get_ylim()[0], -9)

plt.annotate('ERUPTION', (0.055, 0.42), rotation=90, xycoords='axes fraction', fontweight='bold', fontsize=20, color='r')
plt.annotate('Pre\nEruptive\nSwarm', (0.035, 0.88), rotation=0, xycoords='axes fraction', fontweight='bold', fontsize=20, color='b', horizontalalignment='center')
plt.annotate('Early Eruptive\nPhase', (0.12, 0.9), rotation=0, xycoords='axes fraction', fontweight='bold', fontsize=20, color='orange', horizontalalignment='center')
plt.annotate('Main Eruptive Phase\n(sustained gas and lava ejection)', (0.45, 0.9), rotation=0, xycoords='axes fraction', fontweight='bold', fontsize=20, color='green', horizontalalignment='center')
plt.annotate('Final Eruptive Phase\n(reducing gas and lava ejection)', (0.86, 0.9), rotation=0, xycoords='axes fraction', fontweight='bold', fontsize=20, color='r', horizontalalignment='center')

ax_timeline.add_patch(Rectangle((date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-11')), -8), date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-19 14:13:00'))-date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-11')), 53, color=tab20_colors[0], zorder=1, alpha=0.1))
ax_timeline.add_patch(Rectangle((date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-19 14:13:00')), -8), date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-10-01'))-date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-09-19 14:13:00')), 53, color=tab20_colors[2], zorder=1, alpha=0.1))
ax_timeline.add_patch(Rectangle((date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-10-01')), -8), date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-12-01'))-date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-10-01')), 53, color=tab20_colors[4], zorder=1, alpha=0.1))
ax_timeline.add_patch(Rectangle((date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-12-01')), -8), date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-12-31'))-date2num(pd.to_datetime('2021-12-01'))+1, 53, color=tab20_colors[6], zorder=1, alpha=0.1));

ax_timeline.set_title("Recorded seismicity during the La Palma eruption 11 September - 15 December 2021 (INVOLCAN Dataset)", dict(fontsize=24), pad=20)
ax_timeline.set_ylabel("Depth (km)", dict(fontsize=20), labelpad=20)
ax_timeline.set_xlabel("Eruption Timeline", dict(fontsize=20), labelpad=20);

Cumulative Distribution Plots

def cumulative_events_mag_depth(df, hue='Depth', kind='scatter', ax=None, dpi=100, palette=None, kde=True):
    matplotlib.rcParams['ytick.labelright'] = False
    g = sns.jointplot(x="Magnitude", y="Depth(km)", data=df,
                      kind=kind, hue=hue, height=10, space=0.1, marginal_ticks=False, ratio=8, alpha=0.6,
                      hue_order=['Shallow (<18km)', 'Interchange (18km>x>28km)', 'Deep (>28km)'],
                      ax=ax, palette=palette, ylim=(-2,50), xlim=(0.3,5.6), edgecolor=".2", marginal_kws=dict(bins=20, hist_kws={'edgecolor': 'black'}))
    if kde:
        g.plot_joint(sns.kdeplot, color="b", zorder=1, levels=15, ax=ax)
    g.fig.axes[0].invert_yaxis();
    g.fig.set_dpi(dpi)

#| label: fig-cumulative
#| fig-cap: Cumulative earthquake data over time (n=5465) to understand their distributions spatially, by depth and magnitude.
import warnings

with warnings.catch_warnings():
    warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
    cumulative_events_mag_depth(df_ign, hue=None, dpi=200)
    plt.suptitle('Cumulative Events 01-01-2017 to 01-01-2022', y=1.01);

Results

The dataset was loaded into this Jupyter notebook and filtered down to La Palma events only. This results in 5465 data points which we then visualized to understand their distributions spatially, by depth, by magnitude and in time.

From our analysis above, we can see 3 different systems in play.

Firstly, the shallow earthquake swarm leading up to the eruption on 19th September, related to significant surface deformation and shallow magma intrusion.

After the eruption, continuous shallow seismicity started at 10-15km corresponding to magma movement in the crustal reservoir.

Subsequently, high magnitude events begin occurring at 30-40km depths corresponding to changes in the mantle reservoir. These are also continuous but occur with a lower frequency than in the crustal reservoir.

Conclusions

From the analysis of the earthquake data collected and published by IGN for the period of 11 September through to 9 November 2021. Visualization of the earthquake events at different depths appears to confirm the presence of both mantle and crustal reservoirs as proposed by @marrero2019.

Data availability statement should be specified in a separate cell with metadata "part": "availability", similar to the abstract.

AGU requires an Availability Statement for the underlying data needed to understand, evaluate, and build upon the reported research at the time of peer review and publication.

A web scraping script was developed to pull data into a machine-readable form for analysis. That code tool is available on GitHub along with a copy of recently updated data.

References {.unnumbered}

:::{#refs}

:::