Battle of the Democratic Underdogs
Running for president these days means convincing everyone that you're going
to win until they don't believe you, at which point you must persuade them that
you're behind.
You can see this dynamic in the Gore-Bradley jockeying of recent days. Two
months ago, the vice-president was thought to be so far ahead as to be
unassailable. He was running against the putative Republican nominee, George W.
Bush, not against his benign Democratic challenger. Gore did not acknowledge
that the primary was a real contest. The name "Bill Bradley" did not pass his
lips.
But thanks to a steady stream of media negativity toward Gore and his
campaign (and sympathy for Bradley), polls began pointing to a closer race. And
once it became competitive, Gore needed to play the expectations game in a
different way. By moving his campaign headquarters to Tennessee and challenging
Bradley to a series of debates, Gore is trying to recast himself in the
position that has served Bradley well: as a scrappy challenger and an outsider
rather than the front-runner. He is trying to build down expectations for
himself far enough that winning the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary
by a slim margin will count as a victory, rather than as failure to meet
expectations.
You might think that Bradley would be pleased by his opponent's
acknowledgement that it's a horse race. In fact, Bradley hates being called the
front-runner. At a press conference last week, he bristled at the notion that
he was expected to win the New York primary, even though he is ahead there in
the polls. What Bradley is hoping for is a surge to lift him up early next
year, carrying him to victory in the big primaries in New York, California and
the Midwest. A wave that crests now could be a ripple by early March.
All this is happening so early that we might well go through a few more
turnarounds before voters actually pick the nominee. Now that Bradley is deemed
viable by the press, he's beginning to receive harsher scrutiny. A few
skeptical stories about him have already appeared. Next will be articles
suggesting that Gore is far from done for--he has the wonder-economy on his
side, is more moderate than Bradley, has the superdelegates locked up, etc. And
the whole expectations cycle will replay itself.
This dynamic has not set in on the Republican side--yet. George W. Bush is
still running as if he lacks any serious opposition. But at some point, expect
the press to start treating some other candidate as a plausible and promising
contender. Polls will show a challenger "closing the gap" in Iowa or New
Hampshire. He (or she) will make the cover of Time . At that point, Bush
will appear with Al Gore's script before him. He will call for early debates,
embrace "change," and say he welcomes the challenge.
P.S. I will try to start this groundswell for John McCain on Monday.
(Read more about Gore's attempt to become the media underdog in this week's
Pundit Central.)
