The War Room Strikes Back
Hold, a 30-second clip
produced for the Clinton campaign by Bob Squier of Squier, Knapp &
Ochs.
Republican commercials are
laboring to make taxes and character the central issues of the presidential
campaign. The Clinton War Room--a state of mind this year, not a place--strikes
back with Hold , a tough, frontal (and potentially dangerous) response
prepared by adman Bob Squier at the direction of the president's chief
strategist, Dick Morris.
The Clinton ad begins not
with the issue of taxes but with character, accusing Dole of engaging in the
old "attack" politics (proving once again that the best use of negatives can be
accusing the other guy of going negative). The bold red chyrons used in the
ad--scarlet letters that appear here and later in the spot--are a chromatic
charge of wrongdoing leveled against Dole. Hold both responds to the tax
attacks made by Dole and sows seeds of doubt about future Republican assaults.
The timing is excellent: According to the polls, Clinton has been attacked so
often that he is in need of a Teflon coating.
Hold presents Dole
in age-emphasizing black-and-white videotape, with a drawing of the Capitol in
the background, indicating that the former senator hasn't left that unpopular
venue. Color footage, complete with a shot of the Marine band in the
background, lends Clinton presidential depth and authority. The ad argues that
Clinton cut taxes, thereby confronting both the tax issue and the
conventional wisdom about him and his party. (Voters believe that Clinton
raised taxes and generally resist any argument that Democrats are better at
reducing taxes.)
The danger of Hold
lies in its boldness. If taxes became the defining issue, the terrain would
naturally favor Dole. But if Clinton seizes the tax issue, what does Dole have
left? This calculus of risk and gain reflects the thinking of Morris, a Clinton
consultant in the early '80s who switched parties and often deployed taxes as a
wedge issue to get Republicans elected.
Clinton's claim in
Hold that he has cut taxes for "working families" is based on the Earned
Income Tax Credit, which helps the working poor. The choice of
language--"working families"--plays on the fact that most Americans view
themselves that way. The narration and visual swiftly move on to "tax credits
for college"--which polls report as more popular than Dole's widely anticipated
proposal for a 10 or 15 percent across-the-board tax cut.
Hold discounts the
popular assumption that Republicans are tax cutters by citing areas where it's
believable that they would increase taxes--"working families" and "Social
Security"--areas where Democrats have the natural advantage. Dole, again in
ghostly black and white, is paired with Gingrich (who owns the highest negative
ratings of any national figure) in footage that runs in slow motion, making him
look older and less vigorous. Meanwhile, a list of Dole tax increases scrolls
up the screen, annotated with specific bill numbers as proof.
Dole's tax-raising sins
are totaled in red at $900 billion. Even "Republicans" are appalled, the spot
suggests, citing a Time magazine article (from 12 years ago). The
appalled Republican quoted in the magazine--but not named in the spot--is Newt
Gingrich, who was then a backbencher in the House.
Dole appears briefly in
color--a visual cue that we are now watching him on the stump and not in
Congress--and promises that we are about to see "the real Bob Dole." This
implies that there are at least two Doles, setting up the conclusion that the
campaigning, tax-cutting Dole is the phony. The real Dole, the spot tells
us--and not just in words--is the aged career politician who has spent 35 years
raising your taxes.
Hold goes against
the grain of popular assumptions about Democrats and taxes; but it doesn't need
to convince completely. The tactic is to fight Dole to a draw or a near-draw on
the tax issue; that would be an intermediate victory for Clinton, and make a
November victory more likely.
--Robert Shrum
