Moderator: Herbert Stein
Herbert
Stein, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, was chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisers under Presidents Nixon and Ford. He is a member of the board
of contributors at the Wall Street Journal .
Francis
Fukuyama
Francis
Fukuyama is the Hirst professor of public policy at the Institute of Public
Policy at George Mason University. He is author of The End of History and
the Last Man and Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of
Prosperity .
George
Modelski
George
Modelski is professor emeritus of political science at the University of
Washington. He is co-author, with William R. Thompson, of Leading Sectors
and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics and
author of Long Cycles in World Politics .
Arthur
Schlesinger Jr.
Arthur
Schlesinger Jr. is a historian, writer, and former special assistant to
President Kennedy. A new edition of his book, The Vital Center , will be
published later this year.
William
Strauss and Neil Howe
William
Strauss and Neil Howe are co-authors of The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. Strauss is a
generational historian and co-founder and director of the , a political satire
troupe. Neil Howe, a historian and economist, is a senior advisor for the
Concord Coalition.
Herbert
Stein
Perhaps because we are
nearing the end of a millennium, there seems to be a renewal of interest in
theories of history. We seek regularities in the long movements of history,
trying to find our place in a bigger picture than the evening news and hoping
to see what is coming next.
Three kinds of theories of
history have been prominent in recent discussion--ending theories, wave
theories, and cycle theories.
The ending theories identify
ages with distinguishing features that have come to an end or will come to an
end and will not recur. The distinguishing features may be dominance by one
nation, the prevalence of a particular social system, or the pervasiveness of a
certain technology. The Roman Empire came to an end, feudalism came to an end,
and some say that the Industrial Age is coming to an end. These periods will
not come back. There may or may not be common features that bring ages to an
end. There may or may not be a predictable sequence of ages, as in the Marxist
theory that feudalism leads to capitalism and capitalism leads to socialism--a
theory that, so far, seems to have been erroneous.
The most ambitious of the
recent ending theories is the theory of the end of history, advanced by Francis
Fukuyama, a member of this week's panel.
Wave theories postulate the
recurrence of phases with similar characteristics. Thus, History goes A-B, A-B
or A-B-C, A-B-C. All the As have similar features that distinguish them from
the Bs or Cs. But the As may be of quite different lengths from each other, and
so may the Bs and Cs, and they may have their distinguishing features to
different degrees. A recent wave theory is that propounded by David Hackett
Fisher. He finds in history long waves of inflation, each followed by a crisis
followed by a period of equilibrium followed by another wave of inflation, and
so on.
Cycle theories, unlike wave
theories, suggest that the phases of history are of roughly similar duration.
That permits prediction of the remaining duration of the present phase and the
coming of the next phase. A simple historical cycle consists of alternating
phases of political activism followed by political passivity. Arthur
Schlesinger Jr., a member of our panel, is the leading exponent of this idea,
which was first put forward by his father.
A more complex cycle is
described by co-authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, two of our panelists.
They visualize a four-phase cycle. These phases are 1) an era of strengthening
institutions, 2) an era of spiritual awakening, 3) an era of weakening
institutions, and 4) an era of crisis. The entire four-phase cycle is believed
to last about 80 years.
Our panel to discuss the
validity and implications of these and other theories of history will consist
of the aforementioned Messrs. Fukuyama, Schlesinger, Strauss, and Howe; and
Professor George Modelski, of the University of Washington.
