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United States General Accounting Office
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Report to the Subcommittee on Readiness and
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Management Support, Committee on Armed Services,
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U.S. Senate
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July 2002
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BEST PRACTICES
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Capturing Design and Manufacturing
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Knowledge Early Improves Acquisition Outcomes
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GAO-02-701
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Contents
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Letter
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Executive Summary
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Purpose2
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Background3
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Results in Brief4
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Principal Findings6
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Recommendations for Executive Action9
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Agency Comments10
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Chapter 1
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Best Practices of Leading Commercial Companies12
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DOD's Traditional Approach to Product Development15
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DOD's Adoption of Best Practices16
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Objectives, Scope, and Methodology17
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Chapter 2
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DOD Programs Had Better Outcomes When Design and
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Manufacturing Knowledge Was Captured at Key Program
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Manufacturing
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Junctures22 Knowledge Is Critical to Program
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Success
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Chapter 3 Best Practices Enable Timely Capture of Design and
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Manufacturing Knowledge
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Leading Commercial Companies Use Evolutionary Product
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Development Framework to Reduce Development Risks30
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Leading Commercial Companies Use a Product Development
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Process to Capture Design and Manufacturing Knowledge for
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Decision Making32
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When DOD Programs More Closely Approximated Best
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Practices,
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Outcomes Were Better43
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Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed
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to Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
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Acquisition Policy Lacks Specific Implementation
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Criteria53 Incentives in the DOD Acquisition Environment Do
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Not Favor
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Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge Early
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Enough57
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Related GAO Products
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Figure 1:
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Figures
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Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7:
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Figure 8: Figure 9:
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Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, and
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Procurement Funding for Fiscal Years 1995 to 200712
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Knowledge-based Process for Applying Best Practices to
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the Development of New Products13
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Notional Illustration Showing the Different Paths That
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Product's Development Can Take15
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DOD's Concurrent Approach to Weapon System
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Development16
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Notional Single-Step and Evolutionary Approaches to
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Developing New Products31
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Achieving Stability on AIM-9X Missile Program by
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Knowledge Point 244
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History of Drawing Completion for the F-22 Program46
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PAC-3 Design Knowledge at Critical Design Review49
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Illustration to Show How the Best Practice Model Would
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Apply to DOD's Acquisition Process56
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A
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United States General Accounting Office Washington, D.C.
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20548
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July 15, 2002
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The Honorable Daniel Akaka Chairman The Honorable James Inhofe
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Ranking Minority Member Subcommittee on Readiness and Management
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Support Committee on Armed Services United States Senate
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As you requested, this report examines how best practices offer
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improvements to the way the Department of Defense develops new
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weapon systems, primarily the design and manufacturing aspects of
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the acquisition process. It examines the attainment of design and
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manufacturing knowledge and its use at critical junctures to make
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decisions about weapon systems' readiness to move forward in the
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acquisition process. We make recommendations to the Secretary of
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Defense for improvements to weapon system acquisition policy to
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better align design and manufacturing activities with best
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practices that have shown that the capture and use of key knowledge
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can result in better cost, schedule, and performance outcomes.
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We are sending copies of this report to the Secretary of
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Defense; the Secretary of the Army; the Secretary of the Navy; the
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Secretary of the Air Force; the Director of the Office of
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Management and Budget; the Director, Missile Defense Agency; and
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interested congressional committees. We will also make copies
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available to others upon request. In addition, the report will be
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available at no charge on the GAO Web site at
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http://www.gao.gov.
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If you have any questions regarding this report, please call me
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at (202) 512-4841. Other contacts are listed in appendix II.
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Katherine V. Schinasi Director Acquisition and Sourcing
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Management
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Executive Summary
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Historically, the Department of Defense
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(DOD) has taken much longer and
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Purpose
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spent much more than originally planned to develop and acquire
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its weapon systems, significantly reducing the department's buying
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power over the years. Clearly, it is critical to find better ways
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of doing business and, in particular, to make sure that weapon
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systems are delivered on time and cost-effectively. This is
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especially true given the vast sums DOD is spending and is expected
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to spend on weapons acquisition-$100 billion alone in 2002 and an
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anticipated $700 billion over the next 5 years. DOD has recognized
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the nature of this problem and has taken steps to address it,
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including advocating the use of best practices for product
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development from commercial companies. Leading commercial companies
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have achieved more predictable outcomes from their product
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development processes because they identify and control design and
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manufacturing risks early and manage them effectively. While DOD
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has made some progress in recent years, GAO's recent weapon system
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reviews show that persistent problems continue to hinder
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acquisition cost, schedule, and performance outcomes. For this
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reason, GAO has continued a body of work to identify the lessons
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learned by best commercial companies to see if they apply to weapon
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system acquisitions.
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This report addresses how DOD can manage its weapon system
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acquisition process to ensure important knowledge about a system's
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design, critical manufacturing processes, and reliability is
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captured and used to make informed and timely decisions before
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committing to substantial development and production investments.
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It identifies best practices to facilitate this decision making at
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two critical junctures-transition from system integration to system
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demonstration during product development and then transition into
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production. Ultimately, this should improve cost, schedule, and
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quality outcomes of DOD major weapon system acquisitions. In
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response to a request from the Chairman and the Ranking Minority
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Member, Subcommittee on Readiness and Management Support, Senate
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Committee on Armed Services, GAO (1) assessed the impact of design
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and manufacturing knowledge on DOD program outcomes, (2) compared
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best practices to those used in DOD programs, and (3) analyzed
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current weapon system acquisition guidance for applicability of
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best practices to obtain better program outcomes.
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Background
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Executive Summary
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In any new product development program there are three critical
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points that require the capture of specific knowledge to achieve
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successful outcomes. The first knowledge point occurs when the
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customer's requirements are clearly defined and resources-proven
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technology, design, time, and money-exist to satisfy them.
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Commercial companies insist that technology be mature at the outset
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of a product development program and, therefore, separate
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technology development from product development. The second
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knowledge point is achieved when the product's design is determined
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to be capable of meeting product requirements-the design is stable
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and ready to begin initial manufacturing of prototypes. The third
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knowledge point is achieved when a reliable product can be produced
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repeatedly within established cost, schedule, and quality targets.
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GAO's prior work on best practices covers achieving the first
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knowledge point.1 This report examines best practices for achieving
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the second and third knowledge points.
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Commercial companies understand the importance of capturing
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design and manufacturing knowledge early in product development,
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when costs to identify problems and make design changes to the
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product are significantly cheaper. In a knowledge-based process,
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the achievement of each successive knowledge point builds on the
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preceding one, giving decision makers the knowledge they need-when
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they need it-to make decisions about whether to invest significant
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additional funds to move forward with product development. Programs
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that follow a knowledge-based approach typically have a higher
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probability of successful cost and schedule outcomes. Problems
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occur in programs when knowledge builds more slowly than
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commitments to enter product development or production. The effects
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of this delay in capturing knowledge can be debilitating. If a
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decision is made to commit to develop and produce a design before
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the critical technology, design, or manufacturing knowledge is
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captured, problems will cascade and become magnified through the
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product development and production phases. Outcomes from these
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problems include increases in cost and schedule and degradations in
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performance and quality.
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1 U.S. General Accounting Office, Best Practices: Better
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Matching of Needs and Resources Will Lead to Better Weapon System
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Outcomes, GAO-01-288 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 8, 2001) and Best
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Practices: Better Management of Technology Development Can Improve
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Weapon System Outcomes,
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GAO/NSIAD-99-162(Washington, D.C.: July 30, 1999).
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Page 3 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
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The success of any effort to develop a new
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product hinges on having the
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Results in Brief
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right knowledge at the right time. Knowledge about a product's
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design and producibility facilitates informed decisions about
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whether to significantly increase investments and reduces the risk
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of costly design changes later in the program. Every program
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eventually achieves this knowledge; however, leading commercial
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companies GAO visited have found that there is a much better
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opportunity to meet predicted cost, schedule, and quality targets
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when it is captured early, in preparation for critical investment
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decisions. A product development process includes two phases
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followed by production-integration phase and demonstration phase.
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The commercial companies GAO visited achieved success in product
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development by first achieving a mature, stable design supported by
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completed engineering drawings during an integration phase and then
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by demonstrating that the product's design was reliable and
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critical manufacturing processes required to build it were in
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control before committing to full production. The more successful
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DOD programs GAO reviewed-the AIM-9X and the FA-18-E/F programs-had
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achieved similar knowledge as the commercial companies, resulting
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in good cost and schedule outcomes. In contrast, the DOD programs,
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which had completed about one-quarter of their drawings when they
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transitioned to the demonstration phase and had less than half of
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their manufacturing processes in control when entering production,
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experienced poor cost and schedule outcomes.
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Leading commercial companies employed practices to capture
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design and manufacturing knowledge in time for making key decisions
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during product development. Two were most prominent. First, the
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companies kept the degree of the design challenge manageable before
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starting a new product development program by using an evolutionary
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approach to develop a product. This minimized the amount of new
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content and technologies on a product, making it easier to capture
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the requisite knowledge about a product's design before investing
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in manufacturing processes, tooling, and facilities. Second, the
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companies captured design and manufacturing knowledge before the
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two critical decision points in product development: when the
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design was demonstrated to be stable-the second knowledge point-and
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when the product was demonstrated to be producible at an affordable
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cost-the third knowledge point. A key measure of design stability
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was stakeholders' agreements that engineering drawings were
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complete and supported by testing and prototyping when necessary. A
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key measure of producibility was whether the companies' critical
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manufacturing processes were in control and product reliability was
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demonstrated. Most DOD programs GAO reviewed did not complete
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engineering drawings prior to entering the demonstration phase, nor
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did they bring critical manufacturing processes in control or
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demonstrate reliability prior to making a production decision.
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DOD has made changes to its acquisition policy2 in an attempt to
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improve its framework for developing weapon systems, but the policy
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does not require the capture of design or manufacturing knowledge
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or sufficient criteria to enter the system demonstration and
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production phases. In addition, it does not require a decision
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review to enter the demonstration phase of product development.
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Further, there is little incentive for DOD program managers to
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capture knowledge early in the development process. Instead, the
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acquisition environment emphasizes delaying knowledge capture and
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problem identification since these events can have a negative
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influence on obtaining annual program funding-a key to success for
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DOD managers. In contrast, commercial companies encourage their
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managers to capture product design and manufacturing knowledge to
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identify and resolve problems early in development, before making
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significant increases in their investment.
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GAO is making recommendations to the Secretary of Defense on
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ways to improve DOD's acquisition process to achieve better
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outcomes by incorporating best practices to capture design and
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manufacturing knowledge and then use this knowledge as a basis for
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decisions to commit significant additional time and money as an
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acquisition program progresses through system demonstration and
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into production.
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2 DOD Directive 5000.1, The Defense Acquisition System (Oct. 23,
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2000), DOD Instruction 5000.2, Operation of the Defense Acquisition
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System (Apr. 5, 2002), and DOD Regulation 5000.2-R, Mandatory
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Procedures for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPS) and Major
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Automated Information System (MAIS) Acquisition Programs (Apr. 5,
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2002).
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Page 5 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
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Principal Findings
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Timely Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
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Is Critical to Program Success
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Knowledge that a product's design is stable early in the program
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facilitates informed decisions about whether to significantly
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increase investments and reduces the risk of costly design changes
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that can result from unknowns after initial manufacturing begins.
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Likewise, later knowledge that the design can be manufactured
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affordably and with consistent high quality prior to making a
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production decision ensures that targets for cost and schedule
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during production will be met. Leading commercial companies do not
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make significant investments to continue a product development or
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its production until they have knowledge that the product's design
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works and it can be manufactured efficiently within cost and
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schedule expectations.
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DOD programs that captured knowledge similar to commercial
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companies had more successful outcomes. For example, the AIM-9X and
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the F/A-18E/F captured design and manufacturing knowledge by key
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decision points and limited cost increases to 4 percent or less and
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schedule growth to 3 months or less. In fact, the AIM-9X had 95
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percent of its drawings completed at its critical design review.
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The F/A-18E/F had 56 percent of its drawings completed and also had
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over 90 percent of its higher level interface drawings completed,
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adding confidence in the system design. Both took steps to ensure
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that manufacturing processes were capable of producing an
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affordable product by the time the programs made production
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decisions.
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On the other hand, the F-22, PAC-3, and Advanced Threat Infrared
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Countermeasures/Common Missile Warning System (ATIRCM/CMWS)
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programs did not capture sufficient knowledge before significant
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investments to continue the programs and experienced cost growth
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that ranged from 23 to 182 percent and schedule delays that ranged
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from 18 months to over 3 years. None of these programs had
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completed more than 26 percent of their engineering drawings for
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their critical design reviews, and only the F-22 and PAC-3 programs
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attempted to track the capability of their critical manufacturing
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processes prior to production.
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Best Practices Enable Timely Capture of
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Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
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Leading commercial companies developed practices that enabled
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the timely capture of design and manufacturing knowledge. First,
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they used an evolutionary approach to product development by
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establishing timephased plans to develop a new product in
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increments based on technologies and resources achievable now and
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later. This approach reduced the amount of risk in the development
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of each increment, facilitating greater success in meeting cost,
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schedule, and performance requirements. The commercial companies
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GAO visited used the evolutionary approach as their method for
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product development. Each company had a plan for eventually
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achieving a quantum leap in the performance of its products and had
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established an orderly, phased process for getting there, by
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undertaking continuous product improvements as resources became
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available. For the most part, DOD programs try to achieve the same
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leap in performance but in just one step, contributing to
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development times that can take over 15 years to deliver a new
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capability to the military user.
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Second, each leading commercial company had a product
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development process that was prominent and central to its success.
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The process was championed by executive leadership and embraced by
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product managers and development teams as an effective way to do
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business. Critical to the product development process were
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activities that enabled the capture of specific design and
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manufacturing knowledge and decision reviews to determine if the
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knowledge captured would support the increased investment necessary
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to move to the next development phase or into production. These
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activities provided knowledge that the product design was stable at
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the decision point to start initial manufacturing (exiting the
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integration phase) as demonstrated by the completion of 90 percent
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of the engineering drawings. They also captured knowledge that a
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product was ready to begin production (exiting the demonstration
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phase) as demonstrated by proof that critical processes were in
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control and product reliability was achievable. The activities that
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enabled the capture and use of this knowledge to make decisions are
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listed in table 1.
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Table 1: Activities That Enable the Capture of Design and
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Manufacturing Knowledge
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Design is stable Product can be produced
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Limit the design challenge. • Identify key system
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characteristics and critical manufacturing processes.
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Demonstrate, through prototyping or other means, that
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product • Determine that processes are in control and stable.
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works.
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Complete design reviews of system and subsystems. •
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Analyze potential failure modes and their effects on
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performance.
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Obtain stakeholder concurrence that the design is
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complete and • Set reliability goals and growth plan and conduct
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reliability producible. testing.
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DOD programs that had more successful outcomes used key best
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practices to a greater degree than others. For example, the AIM-9X
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missile program completed 95 percent of its engineering drawings at
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the critical design review because it made extensive use of
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prototype testing to demonstrate the design met requirements
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coupled with design reviews that included program stakeholders. The
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F/A-18-E/F program eliminated over 40 percent of the parts used to
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build predecessor aircraft to make the design more robust for
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manufacturing and identified critical manufacturing processes,
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bringing them under control before the start of production. Both
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programs developed products that evolved from existing versions,
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making the design challenge more manageable.
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On the other hand, DOD programs with less successful outcomes
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did not apply best practices to a great extent. At their initial
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manufacturing decision reviews, the F-22, PAC-3, and ATIRCM/CMWS
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had less than onethird of their engineering drawings, in part,
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because they did not use prototypes to demonstrate the design met
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requirements before starting initial manufacturing. On the F-22
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program, it was almost 3 years after this review before 90 percent
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of the drawings needed to build the F-22 were completed. Likewise,
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at their production decision reviews, these programs did not
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capture manufacturing and product reliability knowledge consistent
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with best practices. For example, the PAC-3 missile program had
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less than 40 percent of its processes in control and, as a result,
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the missile seekers had to be built, tested, and reworked on
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average 4 times before they were acceptable. The F-22 entered
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production despite being substantially behind its plan to achieve
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reliability goals. As a result, the F-22 is requiring significantly
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more maintenance actions than planned.
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A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is
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Needed to Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
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DOD's acquisition policy establishes a good framework for
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developing weapon systems; however, more specific criteria,
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disciplined adherence, and stronger acquisition incentives are
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needed to ensure the timely capture and use of knowledge and
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decision making. DOD recently changed its acquisition policy to
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emphasize evolutionary acquisition and establish separate
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integration and demonstration phases in the product development
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process. Its goal was to develop higher quality systems in less
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time and for less cost. While similar to the leading commercial
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companies' approach, the policy lacks detailed criteria for
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capturing and using design and manufacturing knowledge to
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facilitate better decisions and more successful acquisition program
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outcomes. It also lacks a decision review to proceed from the
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integration phase to the demonstration phase of product
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development.
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While the right policy and criteria are necessary to ensure a
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disciplined, knowledge-based product development process, the
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incentives that influence the key players in the acquisition
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process will ultimately determine whether they will be used
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effectively. In DOD, current incentives are geared toward delaying
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knowledge so as not to jeopardize program funding. This undermines
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a knowledge-based process for making product development decisions.
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Instead, program managers and contractors push the capture of
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design and manufacturing knowledge to later in the development
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program to avoid the identification of problems that might stop or
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limit funding. They focus more on meeting schedules than capturing
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knowledge. On the other hand, commercial companies must develop
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high-quality products quickly or they may not survive in the
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marketplace. Because of this, they encourage their managers to
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capture product design and manufacturing knowledge to identify and
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resolve problems early in development, before making significant
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increases in their investment. Instead of a schedule-driven
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process, their process is driven by events that bring them
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knowledge: critical design reviews that are supported by completed
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engineering drawings and production decisions supported by
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reliability testing and statistical process control data. They do
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not move forward without the design and manufacturing knowledge
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needed to make informed decisions.
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GAO recommends that the Secretary of
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Defense revise policy and guidance
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Recommendations for
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on the operation of the defense
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acquisition system to include (1) a requirement to capture specific
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design knowledge to be used as exit criteria for transitioning from
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system integration to system demonstration
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and (2) a requirement that the current optional interim progress
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review between system integration and demonstration be a mandatory
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decision review requiring the program manager to verify that design
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is stable and that this be reported in the program's Defense
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Acquisition Executive Summary and Selected Acquisition Report. The
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policy and guidance should also be revised to include (1) a
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requirement to capture and use specific manufacturing knowledge at
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the production commitment point as exit criteria to transition from
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system demonstration into production and (2) a requirement to
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structure major weapon system contracts to ensure the capture and
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use of knowledge for DOD to make investment decisions at critical
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junctures when transitioning from system integration to system
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demonstration and then into production.
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DOD generally agreed with the report and
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its recommendations. A detailed
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Agency Comments
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discussion of DOD's comments appears in appendix I.
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Chapter 1
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Introduction
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The Department of Defense (DOD) spends close to $100 billion
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annually to research, develop, and acquire weapon systems, and this
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investment is expected to grow substantially. Over the next 5
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years, starting in fiscal year 2003, DOD's request for weapon
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system development and acquisition funds is estimated to be $700
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billion (see fig. 1).
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How effectively DOD manages these funds will determine whether
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it receives a good return on its investment. Our reviews over the
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past 20 years have consistently found that DOD's weapon system
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acquisitions take much longer and cost much more than originally
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anticipated, causing disruptions to the department's overall
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investment strategy and significantly reducing its buying power.
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Because such disruptions can limit DOD's ability to effectively
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execute war-fighting operations, it is critical to find better ways
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of doing business.
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In view of the importance of DOD's investment in weapon systems,
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we have undertaken an extensive body of work that examines DOD's
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acquisition issues from a different, more cross-cutting
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perspective-one that draws lessons learned from the best commercial
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product development efforts to see if they apply to weapon system
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acquisitions. This report looks at the core of the acquisition
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process, specifically product development and ways to successfully
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design and manufacture the product. Our previous reports looked at
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such issues as how companies matched customer needs and resources,
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tested products, assured quality, and managed suppliers and are
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listed in related GAO products at the end of the report.
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Best Practices of Leading Commercial
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Companies
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Figure 1: Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, and
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Procurement Funding for Fiscal Years 1995 to 2007
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Source: DOD.
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Leading commercial companies expect their program managers to
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deliver high-quality products on time and within budget. Doing
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otherwise could result in the customer walking away. Thus, the
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companies have created an environment and adopted practices that
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put their program managers in a good position to succeed in meeting
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these expectations. Collectively, these practices ensure that a
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high level of knowledge exists about critical facets of the product
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at key junctures during development. Such a knowledgebased process
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enables decision makers to be reasonably certain about critical
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facets of the product under development when they need this
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knowledge.
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To ensure the right level of knowledge at each key decision
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point in product development, leading commercial companies separate
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technology from product development and take steps to ensure the
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product design is stabilized early so product performance and
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producibility can be demonstrated before production. The process
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followed by leading companies, illustrated in figure 2, can be
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broken down into the following three knowledge points.
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Knowledge point 1 occurs when a match is made between the
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customer's needs and the available resources-technology, design,
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time, and funding. To achieve this match, technologies needed to
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meet essential product requirements must be demonstrated to work in
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their intended environment. In addition, the product developer must
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complete a preliminary product design using systems engineering to
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balance customer desires with available resources.
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Knowledge point 2 occurs when the product's design
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demonstrates its ability to meet performance requirements. Program
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officials are confident that the design is stable and will perform
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acceptably when at least 90 percent of engineering drawings are
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complete. Engineering drawings reflect the results of testing and
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simulation and describe how the product should be built.
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Knowledge point 3 occurs when the product can be
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manufactured within cost, schedule, and quality targets and is
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reliable. An important indicator of this is when critical
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manufacturing processes are in control and consistently producing
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items within quality standards and tolerances. Another indicator is
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when a product's reliability is demonstrated through iterative
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testing that identifies and corrects design problems.
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Figure 2: Knowledge-based Process for Applying Best Practices to
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the Development of New Products
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Source: GAO's analysis.
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This report focuses on best practices for achieving knowledge
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points 2 and 3, particularly at how successful companies design and
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manufacture a product within established cost, schedule, and
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quality targets. The concepts discussed build on our previous
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reports, which looked at the earlier phases of an acquisition,
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including matching customer needs and available resources.
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A key success factor evident in all our work is the ability to
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obtain the right knowledge at the right time and to build knowledge
607
to the point that decision makers can make informed decisions about
608
moving ahead to the next phase. Programs that do this typically
609
have successful cost and schedule outcomes. Programs that do not
610
typically encounter problems that eventually cascade and become
611
magnified through the product development and production phases. As
612
shown in figure 3, the effects of not following a knowledge-based
613
process can be debilitating.
614
DOD's Traditional Approach to Product
615
Development
616
Figure 3: Notional Illustration Showing the Different Paths That
617
a Product's Development Can Take
618
Source: GAO's analysis.
619
DOD has historically developed new weapon systems in a highly
620
concurrent environment that usually forces acquisition programs to
621
manage technology, design, and manufacturing risk at the same time.
622
This environment has made it difficult for either DOD or
623
congressional decision makers to make informed decisions because
624
appropriate knowledge has not been available at key decision points
625
in product development. DOD's common practice for managing this
626
environment has been to create aggressive risk reduction efforts in
627
its programs. Cost reduction initiatives that typically arise after
628
a program is experiencing problems are common tools used to manage
629
these risks. Figure 4 shows the overlapping and concurrent approach
630
that DOD uses to develop its weapon systems. This figure shows that
631
DOD continues to capture technology, design, and manufacturing
632
knowledge long after a program passes through each of the three
633
knowledge points when this knowledge should have been available for
634
program decisions.
635
Figure 4: DOD's Concurrent Approach to Weapon System
636
Development
637
638
Source: GAO's analysis.
639
More important, the problems created by this concurrent approach
640
on individual programs can profoundly affect DOD's overall
641
modernization plans. It is difficult to prioritize and allocate
642
limited budgets among needed requirements when acquisition
643
programs' cost and schedule are always in question. Programs that
644
are managed without the knowledge-based process are more likely to
645
have surprises in the form of cost and schedule increases that are
646
accommodated by disrupting the funding of other programs. Because
647
of these disruptions, decision makers are not able to focus on a
648
balanced investment strategy.
649
DOD is taking steps to change the culture
650
of the acquisition community
651
DOD's Adoption of
652
653
with actions aimed at reducing
654
product development cycle times and improving the predictability of
655
cost and schedule outcomes. DOD recently made constructive changes
656
to its acquisition policy that embrace best
657
Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
658
practices. These changes focused primarily on (1) ensuring
659
technologies are demonstrated to a high level of maturity before
660
beginning a weapon system program and (2) taking an evolutionary,
661
or phased, approach to developing new weapon systems. Because these
662
changes occurred in 2000 and 2001, it is too early to determine how
663
effectively they will be put into practice. While these are good
664
first steps, further use of best practices in product development
665
would provide a greater opportunity to improve weapon system cost
666
and schedule outcomes.
667
Our overall objective was to determine whether best practices
668
offer methods to improve the way DOD ensures that the design is
669
stable early in the development process and whether having
670
manufacturing processes in control before production results in
671
better cost, schedule, and quality outcomes in DOD major
672
acquisition programs. Specifically, we identified best practices
673
that have led to more successful product development and production
674
outcomes, compared the best practices to those used in DOD
675
programs, and analyzed current weapon system acquisition guidance
676
for applicability of best practices.
677
To determine the best practices for ensuring product design and
678
manufacturing maturity from the commercial sector, we conducted
679
general literature searches. On the basis of our literature
680
searches and discussions with experts, we identified a number of
681
commercial companies as having innovative development processes and
682
practices that resulted in successful product development. We
683
visited the following commercial companies:
684
685
686
687
Caterpillar designs and manufactures construction and
688
mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial
689
gas turbines. In 2001, it reported sales and revenues totaling
690
$20.45 billion. We visited its offices in Peoria,
691
Illinois.
692
693
694
695
Cummins Inc. (Engine Business group) designs and
696
manufactures diesel and natural gas engines ranging in size from 60
697
to 3,500 horsepower for mining, construction, agriculture, rail,
698
oil and gas, heavy and mediumduty trucks, buses, and motor homes.
699
In 2001, the Engine Business Group reported sales of $3.1 billion.
700
We visited its offices in Columbus, Indiana.
701
702
703
704
General Electric Aircraft Engines designs and
705
manufactures jet engines for civil and military aircraft and gas
706
turbines, derived from its successful jet engine programs, for
707
marine and industrial applications.
708
709
710
In 2001, it reported earnings totaling $11.4 billion. We visited
711
its offices
712
in Evendale, Ohio.
713
714
715
716
Hewlett Packard designs and manufactures computing
717
systems and imaging and printing systems for individual and
718
business use. In 2001, it reported revenues totaling $45.2 billion.
719
We visited its offices involved in the design and manufacturing of
720
complex ink jet imaging equipment in Corvallis, Oregon.
721
722
723
724
Xerox Corporation designs and manufactures office
725
equipment, including color and black and white printers, digital
726
presses, multifunction devices, and digital copiers designed for
727
offices and production-printing environments. In 2001, it reported
728
revenues totaling $16.5 billion. We visited its offices in
729
Rochester, New York.
730
731
732
At each of the five companies, we conducted structured
733
interviews with representatives to gather uniform and consistent
734
information about each company's new product development processes
735
and best practices. During meetings with these representatives, we
736
obtained a detailed description of the processes and practices they
737
believed necessary and vital to mature a product design and get
738
manufacturing processes under control. We met with design
739
engineers, program managers, manufacturing and quality engineers,
740
and developers of the knowledge-based processes and policies.
741
During the past 5 years, we have gathered information on product
742
development practices from such companies as 3M, Boeing Commercial
743
Airplane Group, Chrysler Corporation, Bombardier Aerospace, Ford
744
Motor Company, Hughes Space and Communications, and Motorola
745
Corporation. This information enabled us to develop an overall
746
model to describe the general approach leading commercial companies
747
take to develop new products.
748
Our report highlights several best practices in product
749
development based on our fieldwork. As such, they are not intended
750
to describe all practices or suggest that commercial companies are
751
without flaws. Representatives from the commercial companies
752
visited told us that the development of their best practices has
753
evolved over many years and that the practices continue to be
754
improved based on lessons learned and new ideas and information.
755
They admit that the application and use of these have not always
756
been consistent or without error. However, they strongly suggested
757
that the probability of success in developing new products is
758
greatly enhanced by the use of these practices. Further, because of
759
the sensitivity to how data that would show the actual outcomes of
760
new product development efforts might affect their competitive
761
standing, we did not obtain specific cost, schedule, and
762
performance data. Most examples provided by these companies were
763
anecdotal. However, the continued success of these companies over
764
time in a competitive marketplace indicated that their practices
765
were important and key to their operations. Furthermore, based on
766
our observations during meetings at these companies, it was
767
apparent that because of the level of detailed process tools
768
developed for their managers and executive leadership these best
769
practices were a centerpiece of their operations.
770
Next, we compared and contrasted the best practices with product
771
development practices used in five DOD major acquisition programs.
772
Below is a brief description of each program we examined:
773
774
775
776
The F-22 fighter aircraft program. This aircraft is
777
designed with advanced features to allow it to be less detectable
778
to adversaries, capable of high speeds for long ranges, and able to
779
provide the pilot with improved awareness of the surrounding
780
situation through the use of integrated avionics. The F-22 program
781
began in 1986 and entered limited production in 2001. The Air Force
782
expects to buy 341 at a total acquisition cost (development and
783
procurement) estimated at $69.7 billion.
784
785
786
787
The Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile program.
788
This program is intended to enhance the Patriot system, an
789
air-defense, guided missile system. PAC-3 is designed to enhance
790
the Patriot radar's ability to detect and identify targets,
791
increase system computer capabilities, improve communications,
792
increase the number of missiles in each launcher, and incorporate a
793
new "hit-to-kill" missile. The "hit-to-kill" missile capabilities
794
represent a major part of the development program, as these are not
795
capabilities included in prior versions of the Patriot system. The
796
missile program began in 1994 and entered limited production in
797
1999. The Army plans to buy 1,159 missiles at a total acquisition
798
cost estimated at $8.5 billion.
799
800
801
802
The Advanced Threat Infrared Countermeasures/Common
803
Missile Warning System (ATIRCM/CMWS) program. ATIRCM/CMWS is a
804
defensive countermeasure system for protection against infrared
805
guided missiles. The common missile warning system detects missiles
806
in flight, and the advanced threat infrared countermeasure defeats
807
the missile
808
809
810
with the use of a laser. The combined system is designed for
811
helicopter
812
aircraft. The common missile warning system is also designed
813
for
814
tactical aircraft such as fighters. The program began in 1995
815
and is
816
expected to start limited production in 2002. The Army and the
817
Special
818
Operations Command plan to buy 1,078 systems at a total
819
acquisition
820
cost estimated at $2.9 billion.
821
822
823
824
The AIM-9X missile program. AIM-9X is an infrared, short
825
range, air-to-air missile carried by Navy and Air Force fighter
826
aircraft. The AIM-9X is an extensive upgrade of the AIM-9M. The
827
AIM-9X is planned to have increased resistance to countermeasures
828
and improved target acquisition capability. A key feature is that
829
it will have the ability to acquire, track, and fire on targets
830
over a wider area than the AIM-9M. The AIM-9X program began in 1994
831
and entered limited production in 2000. DOD plans to buy 10,142
832
missiles at a total acquisition cost estimated at $3
833
billion.
834
835
836
837
The F/A-18 E/F fighter aircraft program. This aircraft is
838
intended to complement and eventually replace the current F/A-18
839
C/D aircraft and perform Navy fighter escort, strike, fleet air
840
defense, and close air support missions. It is the second major
841
model upgrade since the F/A-18 inception. The development program
842
began in 1992. The program entered limited production in 1997 and
843
full rate production in 2000. The Navy plans to buy 548 aircraft at
844
a total acquisition cost estimated at $48.8 billion.
845
846
847
We selected these programs for review based on cost, schedule,
848
and performance data presented in the Selected Acquisition Reports3
849
for each program. We also selected these programs because we
850
considered them to be in two basic categories-successful and
851
unsuccessful cost and schedule performance outcomes. This basis for
852
selection was to compare and contrast the development practices
853
used on each with best practices used by the commercial companies.
854
For each program, we interviewed key managers and design and
855
manufacturing engineering representatives. In some cases, we
856
discussed design and manufacturing issues with representatives of
857
the primary contractor for the specific program to obtain
858
information on the practices and procedures used by the program to
859
ready
860
3 The Selected Acquisition Report provides standard,
861
comprehensive summary reporting of cost, schedule, and performance
862
information for major defense acquisition programs to the
863
Congress.
864
Page 20 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
865
the product design for initial manufacturing and testing as well
866
as for production. We also discussed the use and potential
867
application of best practices that we identified. In addition to
868
discussions, we analyzed significant amounts of data on engineering
869
drawings, design changes, labor efficiencies, manufacturing
870
processes, quality indicators, testing, and schedules. We did not
871
verify the accuracy of the data but did correlate it to other
872
program indicators for reasonableness. Our analysis of the data was
873
used as a basis to develop indicators of each program's development
874
efficiencies and detailed questions to discuss product design and
875
manufacturing practices.
876
We conducted our review between May 2001 and April 2002 in
877
accordance with generally accepted government auditing
878
standards.
879
Chapter 2
880
Timely Design and Manufacturing Knowledge Is Critical to Program
881
Success
882
DOD Programs Had Better Outcomes When
883
Design and Manufacturing Knowledge Was Captured at Key Program
884
Junctures
885
The success of any effort to develop a new product hinges on
886
having the right knowledge at the right time. Every program
887
eventually achieves this knowledge; however, leading commercial
888
companies we visited have found that there is a much better
889
opportunity to meet predicted cost, schedule, and quality targets
890
when it is captured early, in preparation for critical decisions.
891
Specifically, knowledge that a product's design is stable early in
892
the program facilitates informed decisions about whether to
893
significantly increase investments and reduces the risk of costly
894
design changes that can result from unknowns after initial
895
manufacturing begins. This knowledge comes in the form of completed
896
engineering drawings before transitioning from the system
897
integration phase to the system demonstration phase of product
898
development. Best practices suggest that at least 90 percent of the
899
drawings for a product's design be completed before a decision to
900
commit additional resources is made. Likewise, later knowledge that
901
the design can be manufactured affordably and with consistent high
902
quality prior to making a production decision ensures that cost and
903
schedule targets will be met. This knowledge comes in the form of
904
evidence from data that shows manufacturing processes are in
905
control and system reliability is achievable. Leading commercial
906
companies rely on knowledge obtained about critical manufacturing
907
processes and product reliability to make their production
908
decisions.
909
The Department of Defense (DOD) programs we reviewed captured
910
varying amounts of design and manufacturing knowledge in the form
911
of completed engineering drawings and statistical process control
912
data. We found a correlation between the amount of knowledge each
913
captured and their cost and schedule outcomes. Programs that were
914
able to complete more engineering drawings and control their
915
critical manufacturing processes had more success in meeting cost
916
and schedule targets established when they began.
917
Conceptually, the product development process has two phases: a
918
system integration phase to stabilize the product's design and a
919
system demonstration phase to demonstrate the product can be
920
manufactured affordably and work reliably. The system integration
921
phase is used to stabilize the overall system design by integrating
922
components and subsystems into a product and by showing that the
923
design can meet product requirements. When this knowledge is
924
captured, knowledge point 2 has been achieved. It should be
925
demonstrated by the completion of at least 90 percent of
926
engineering drawings, which both DOD and leading commercial
927
companies consider to be the point when a product's design is
928
essentially complete. In the DOD process, this knowledge point
929
should happen by the critical design review, before system
930
demonstration and the initial manufacturing of production
931
representative products begins. The system demonstration phase is
932
then used to demonstrate that the product will work as required and
933
can be manufactured within targets. When this knowledge is
934
captured, knowledge point 3 has been achieved. Critical
935
manufacturing processes are in control and consistently producing
936
items within quality standards and tolerances for the overall
937
product. Also, product reliability has been demonstrated. In the
938
DOD process, like with the commercial process, this knowledge point
939
should happen by the production commitment milestone. Bypassing
940
critical knowledge at either knowledge point will usually result in
941
cost, schedule, and performance problems later in product
942
development and production.
943
We found that the most successful programs had taken steps to
944
gather knowledge that confirmed the product's design was stable
945
before the design was released to manufacturing organizations to
946
build products for demonstration. They had most of the detailed
947
design complete, supported by the completion of a large percentage
948
of engineering drawings to manufacturing. Again, engineering
949
drawings are critical because they include details on the parts and
950
work instructions needed to make the product and reflect the
951
results of testing. These drawings allowed manufacturing personnel
952
to effectively plan the fabrication process and efficiently build
953
production representative prototypes in the factory so
954
manufacturing processes and the product's performance could be
955
validated before committing to production. The most successful DOD
956
programs also captured the knowledge that manufacturing processes
957
needed to build the product would consistently produce a reliable
958
product by the end of system demonstration, before making a
959
production decision. On these programs, the initial phase of
960
production-sometimes known as low-rate initial production-was able
961
to focus on building operational test articles and improving the
962
production processes, instead of continuing the product's design
963
and development.
964
Problematic programs moved forward into system demonstration
965
without the same knowledge from engineering drawings that
966
successful cases had captured. They increased investments in
967
tooling, people, and materials before the design was stable. In
968
these programs, only a small percentage of the drawings needed to
969
make the products had been completed at the time the designs were
970
released to manufacturing organizations for building production
971
representative prototypes. In doing so, these programs undertook
972
the difficult challenge of stabilizing the designs at the same time
973
they were trying to build and test the products. This design
974
immaturity caused costly design changes and parts shortages that,
975
in turn, caused labor inefficiencies, schedule delays, and quality
976
problems. Consequently, these programs required significant
977
increases in resources--time and money-over what was estimated at
978
the point each program began the system demonstration phase.
979
The most problematic programs also started production before
980
design and manufacturing development work was concluded. In these
981
cases, programs were producing items for the customers while making
982
major product design and tooling changes, still establishing
983
manufacturing processes, and conducting development testing. These
984
programs encountered significant cost increases, schedule delays,
985
and performance problems during production.
986
Table 2 shows the relationship between design stability and
987
manufacturing knowledge at key junctures and the outcomes for the
988
DOD programs we reviewed. To measure design stability at the start
989
of the system demonstration phase, knowledge point 2, we determined
990
the percentage of the product's engineering drawings that had been
991
completed by the critical design review. In DOD programs, after the
992
critical design review, the system design is released to
993
manufacturing to begin building the production representative
994
prototypes for the system demonstration phase. To measure
995
producibility at the production decision, knowledge point 3, we
996
determined whether the critical manufacturing processes were in
997
statistical control at that time. We compared this information with
998
best practices. The cost and schedule experiences of the program
999
since the start of system demonstration are also shown.
1000
Table 2: Attainment of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge in DOD
1001
Programs and the Program Outcomes
1002
1003
aWhile AIM-9X used statistical process control on a limited
1004
basis, we believe other factors contributed to a successful
1005
production outcome to date. Other factors included early
1006
achievement of design stability, early identification of key
1007
characteristics and critical manufacturing processes, use of
1008
established manufacturing processes for components common to other
1009
weapon systems, design trade-offs to enhance manufacturing
1010
capability, and a product design less vulnerable to variations in
1011
manufacturing processes.
1012
bF/A-18 E/F had 56 percent of drawings completed but also had
1013
completed most of the higher-level assembly drawings. The
1014
combination of these drawings with the fact the aircraft was a
1015
variant of previously fielded F-18 aircraft models provided the
1016
program a significant amount of knowledge that the design was
1017
stable at the start of system demonstration.
1018
Source: DOD program offices and Selected Acquisition
1019
Reports.
1020
As shown in the table, the AIM-9X and FA-18 E/F programs had
1021
captured a significant amount of design knowledge at the start of
1022
system demonstration and manufacturing knowledge by the start of
1023
production. In each of those programs, product developers had the
1024
advantage of prior versions of the systems. These programs came
1025
very close to meeting their original cost and schedule estimates
1026
for product development. The other three programs, F-22, PAC-3, and
1027
ATIRCM/CMWS, had less knowledge at each key junctures. Their
1028
development cost and schedule results significantly exceeded
1029
estimates. Specific details on the AIM-9X, F-22, and ATIRCM/CMWS
1030
program experiences follow.
1031
AIM-9X Program Experience
1032
The AIM-9X program began in 1994, continuing the long-term
1033
evolution of the AIM-9 series of short-range air-to-air missiles.
1034
In 1999, after developing and testing a number of engineering
1035
prototype missiles, the program held a critical design review to
1036
determine if the program was ready to begin initial manufacturing
1037
of a production representative prototype for system demonstration.
1038
At this review, about 95 percent of the eventual engineering
1039
drawings were completed-a stable design by best practices. Because
1040
AIM-9X was the next generation in this family of missiles, the
1041
program had significant knowledge on how to produce the missile. At
1042
the 1999 critical design review, the estimated development and
1043
production costs totaled $2.82 billion. As of December 2001, the
1044
estimate was $2.96 billion, less than a 5 percent increase.
1045
F-22 Program Experience The F-22 program
1046
began detailed design efforts in 1991 when it entered a planned
1047
8-year product development phase. In 1995, about the expected
1048
midpoint of the phase, the program held its critical design review
1049
to determine if the design was stable and complete. Despite having
1050
only about a quarter of the eventual design drawings completed for
1051
the system, the program declared the design to be stable and ready
1052
to begin initial manufacturing. At that time, the program office
1053
had estimated the cost to complete the development program at $19.5
1054
billion. However, the program did not complete 90 percent of its
1055
drawings for the aircraft until 1998, 3 years into the system
1056
demonstration phase. During the building of the initial aircraft,
1057
several design and manufacturing problems surfaced that affected
1058
the deliveries of major sections of the aircraft. Large sections
1059
were delivered incomplete to final assembly and had to be built out
1060
of the planned assembly sequence.
1061
In 1997, an independent review team examined the program and
1062
determined the product development effort was underestimated. The
1063
team found that building the first three aircraft was taking
1064
substantially more labor hours than planned. Between 1995 and 1998,
1065
the development estimate for the F-22 increased by over $3.3
1066
billion and the schedule slipped by a year. Achieving design
1067
stability late has contributed to further cost increases. As of
1068
December 2001, the estimated development cost was $26.1 billion, a
1069
34 percent increase since the critical design review was held in
1070
1995.
1071
While the program attributes some production cost increases to a
1072
reduction in F-22 quantities, it has been significantly affected by
1073
design and
1074
ATIRCM/CMWS Program Experience
1075
manufacturing problems that started during development. The
1076
independent review team evaluated the cost impact on the production
1077
aircraft that would likely occur because of cost and schedule
1078
problems in development and found that production aircraft would
1079
have to begin later, at a slower pace, and cost more than expected.
1080
The team estimated that production costs could increase by as much
1081
as $13 billion if savings were not found. The Air Force
1082
subsequently increased the estimate to more than $19 billion in
1083
cost savings required to avoid cost increases. In 2001, when the
1084
F-22 limited production decision was made, the program had less
1085
knowledge about the aircraft's reliability and manufacturing
1086
processes than more successful cases. For example, at its limited
1087
production decision, it had only 44 percent of its critical
1088
manufacturing processes in control. In September 2001, the program
1089
reported that overall production cost would likely increase by more
1090
than $5.4 billion. This estimate was based on the effort needed so
1091
far to build the aircraft during product development.
1092
Since it began in 1995, the ATIRCM/CMWS program has had
1093
significant cost growth and schedule delays during product
1094
development. The product developer held a major design review in
1095
1997. Like the F-22, the review demanded less proof about the
1096
product's design in the form of engineering drawings before
1097
deciding to begin initial manufacturing. At that time, only 21
1098
percent of the engineering drawings had been completed, and it was
1099
still unknown whether the design would meet the requirements. In
1100
fact, the program knew that a major redesign of a critical
1101
component was needed. Despite this, the program office deemed the
1102
risk acceptable for moving the program forward to begin
1103
manufacturing prototypes. Over the next 2 years, the program
1104
encountered numerous design and manufacturing problems. It was not
1105
until 1999, about 2 years after the critical design review, that
1106
program officials felt that the design had stabilized; however, by
1107
this time, the product development cost had increased 160 percent
1108
and production had been delayed by almost 3 years.
1109
ATIRCM/CMWS is scheduled to begin limited production in early
1110
2002, but without the same degree of assurance as the more
1111
successful programs that the product can be manufactured within
1112
cost, schedule, and quality targets. The program has not yet
1113
determined if manufacturing processes needed to build the product
1114
are in control. Many of the development units were built by hand,
1115
in different facilities, and with different processes and
1116
personnel. Program officials stated that because they did not
1117
stabilize the design until late in development, manufacturing
1118
issues were not adequately addressed. Since 1997, the estimated
1119
unit cost for the system has increased by 182 percent.
1120
Chapter 3
1121
Best Practices Enable Timely Capture of Design and Manufacturing
1122
Knowledge
1123
Leading commercial companies have been successful in achieving
1124
product development goals because they have found ways to enable
1125
the capture of design and manufacturing knowledge about the
1126
products they are developing in a timely way. We found two
1127
practices that allowed leading commercial companies to capture
1128
necessary knowledge for product development. First, they
1129
established a framework of evolutionary product development that
1130
limited the amount of design and manufacturing knowledge that had
1131
to be captured. This framework limited the design challenge for any
1132
one new product development by requiring risky technology, design,
1133
or manufacturing requirements to be deferred until a future
1134
generation of the product. Second, each company (1) employed a
1135
disciplined product development process that brought together and
1136
integrated all of the technologies, components, and subsystems
1137
required for the product to ensure the design was stable before
1138
entering product demonstration and (2) demonstrated the product was
1139
reliable and producible using proven manufacturing processes before
1140
entering production.
1141
The product development process includes tools that both capture
1142
knowledge and tie this knowledge to decisions about the product's
1143
design and manufacturing processes before making commitments that
1144
would significantly affect company resources. For example, during
1145
system integration, each leading commercial company used various
1146
forms of prototypes and information from predecessor products to
1147
stabilize the product's design and identify critical processes,
1148
then used a decision review that required agreements from key
1149
stakeholders that the requisite design knowledge was captured in
1150
making a decision to move into system demonstration. During system
1151
demonstration, each company used statistical process control and
1152
reliability testing to ensure the product could be produced
1153
affordably and would be reliable, then used a similar decision
1154
review that required agreements from key stakeholders that the
1155
requisite knowledge was captured when deciding to move into
1156
production.
1157
The Department of Defense (DOD) programs that we reviewed used
1158
some of these practices to varying degrees and experienced
1159
predictable outcomes. For example, the AIM-9X and F/A-18 E/F
1160
programs were evolutionary in nature, modifications of existing
1161
products with a manageable amount of new technological or design
1162
challenges. They also gathered design and manufacturing knowledge,
1163
although not to the extent we found at commercial companies.
1164
Finally, they held program reviews and ensured that the design and
1165
manufacturing knowledge was captured before moving forward. They
1166
had relatively successful outcomes. The other DOD
1167
Leading Commercial Companies Use
1168
Evolutionary Product Development Framework to Reduce Development
1169
Risks
1170
programs-the F-22, ATIRCMS, and PAC-3-did not closely
1171
approximate best practices in capturing design or manufacturing
1172
knowledge during product development. They took on greater design
1173
challenges, had program reviews that were not supported by critical
1174
design and manufacturing knowledge, and made decisions to advance
1175
to the next phases of development without sufficient design and
1176
manufacturing knowledge.
1177
A key to the success of commercial companies was using an
1178
evolutionary approach to develop a product. This approach permitted
1179
companies to focus more on design and development with a limited
1180
array of new content and technologies in a program. It also ensured
1181
that each company had the requisite knowledge for a product's
1182
design before investing in the development of manufacturing
1183
processes and facilities. Companies have found that trying to
1184
capture the knowledge required to stabilize the design of a product
1185
that requires significant amounts of new content is an unmanageable
1186
task, especially if the goal is to reduce cycle times and get the
1187
product into the marketplace as quickly as possible. Design
1188
elements not achievable in the initial development were planned for
1189
subsequent development efforts in future generations of the
1190
product, but only when technologies were proven to be mature and
1191
other resources were available.
1192
Commercial companies have implemented the evolutionary approach
1193
by establishing time-phased plans to develop new products in
1194
increments based on technologies and resources achievable now and
1195
later. This approach reduces the amount of risk in the development
1196
of each increment, facilitating greater success in meeting cost,
1197
schedule, and performance requirements. In effect, these companies
1198
evolve products, continuously improving their performance as new
1199
technologies and methods allow. These evolutionary improvements to
1200
products eventually result in the full desired capability, but in
1201
multiple steps, delivering a series of enhanced interim
1202
capabilities to the customer more quickly.
1203
Historically, DOD's approach has been to develop new weapon
1204
systems that often attempt to satisfy the full requirement in a
1205
single step, regardless of the design challenge or the maturity of
1206
technologies necessary to achieve the full capability. Under this
1207
single-step approach, a war fighter can wait over 15 years to
1208
receive any improved capability. Figure 5 shows a notional
1209
comparison between the single-step and evolutionary approaches.
1210
Figure 5: Notional Single-Step and Evolutionary Approaches to
1211
Developing New Products
1212
1213
Source: GAO's analysis and DOD acquisition guidance.
1214
Each commercial company we visited used the evolutionary
1215
approach as the primary method of product development. General
1216
Electric builds on the basic capability of a fielded product by
1217
introducing proven improvements in capability from its advanced
1218
engineering development team. General Electric considers the
1219
introduction of immature technologies into fielded products or new
1220
engine development programs as a significant cost and schedule
1221
risk. Its new product development process is primarily focused on
1222
reducing and managing risk for design changes and product
1223
Leading Commercial Companies Use a Product
1224
Development Process to Capture Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
1225
for Decision Making
1226
introductions. Cummins and Hewlett Packard managers indicated
1227
that, in the past, their companies learned the hard way by trying
1228
to make quantum leaps in product performance and by including
1229
immature technologies. Now, both companies have new product
1230
development processes that actively manage the amount of new
1231
content that can be placed on a new product development effort.
1232
Caterpillar also limits new content on its new products as a way to
1233
more successfully and cost-effectively develop new, but
1234
evolutionary, products. Even during the development of its 797
1235
mining truck, which it considered a major design challenge, it did
1236
not require the truck to achieve capabilities-such as prognostics
1237
for better maintenance-that it could not demonstrate or validate in
1238
the design in a timely manner.
1239
Of the five DOD programs we reviewed, two-the F/A-18-E/F and the
1240
AIM-9X-were variations of existing products-the F/A-18-C/D and the
1241
AIM-9M-and the programs made a commitment to use existing
1242
technologies and processes as much as possible. These two programs
1243
had relatively successful cost and schedule outcomes. They
1244
represented an exception to the usual practice in DOD. The
1245
overwhelming majority of DOD's major acquisitions today require
1246
major leaps in capability over their predecessors or any other
1247
competing weapon systems, with little knowledge about the resources
1248
that will be required to design and manufacture the systems.
1249
Decisions are continually made throughout product development
1250
without knowing the cost and schedule ramifications.
1251
Leading commercial companies we visited had spent significant
1252
amounts of time and resources to develop and evolve new product
1253
development processes that ensured design and manufacturing
1254
knowledge was captured at the two critical decision points in
1255
product development: when the product's design was demonstrated to
1256
be stable-knowledge point 2-and when the product was demonstrated
1257
to be producible at an affordable cost-knowledge point 3. The
1258
process established a disciplined framework to capture specific
1259
design and manufacturing knowledge about new products. Companies
1260
then used that knowledge to make informed decisions about moving
1261
forward in a new product development program. Commercial companies
1262
tied this knowledge to decisions about the products' design and
1263
manufacturing processes before making commitments that would
1264
significantly impact company resources. Each commercial firm we
1265
visited had a new product development process that was prominent
1266
and central to the firm's successes. It included three
1267
Design Knowledge Should Be Captured before
1268
Entering Product Demonstration
1269
aspects: (1) activities that led to the capture of specific
1270
design knowledge,
1271
(2) activities that led to the capture of specific manufacturing
1272
and product reliability knowledge, and (3) decision reviews to
1273
determine if the appropriate knowledge was captured to move to the
1274
next phase.
1275
To ensure that the product's design was stable before deciding
1276
to commit additional resources to product demonstration, commercial
1277
companies demanded knowledge, either from existing product
1278
information or by building engineering prototypes. They also used a
1279
disciplined design review process to examine and verify the
1280
knowledge that had culminated at the end of product integration,
1281
This design review process required agreement from stakeholders
1282
that the product design could be produced and would satisfy the
1283
customer's requirements. Stakeholders included design engineers,
1284
manufacturing or production personnel, and key supplier
1285
representatives who used engineering drawings, supported by test
1286
results and engineering data, as a key indicator of the design's
1287
stability. Once the program achieved a stable design, the certainty
1288
of their cost and schedule estimates was substantially increased,
1289
allowing them to plan the balance of the product development
1290
program with high confidence. Table 3 shows the activities required
1291
to capture design knowledge that leads to executive decisions about
1292
whether to transition to the next phase of development.
1293
Table 3: Activities to Capture Design Knowledge and Make
1294
Decisions
1295
1296
Activities to Achieve Stable Design Knowledge
1297
1298
1299
1300
Limit design challenge - The initial design challenge is
1301
limited to a product that can be developed and delivered quickly
1302
and provide the user with an improved capability. A time-phased
1303
plan is used to develop improved products-future generations-in
1304
increments as technologies and other resources become
1305
available.
1306
1307
1308
1309
Demonstrate design meets requirements -The product's
1310
design is demonstrated to meet the user's requirements. For a new
1311
product that is not based on an existing product, prototypes are
1312
built and tested. If the product is a variant of an existing
1313
product, companies often used modeling and simulation or prototypes
1314
at the component or subsystem level to demonstrate the new
1315
product's design.
1316
1317
1318
1319
Complete critical design reviews - Critical design
1320
reviews are used to assess whether a product's design meets
1321
requirements and is ready to start initial manufacturing. They are
1322
conducted for the system, subsystems, and components to assess
1323
design maturity and technical risk.
1324
1325
1326
1327
Stakeholders agree drawings complete and producible - The
1328
agreement by stakeholders (engineers, manufacturers, and other
1329
organizations) is used to signify confidence that the design will
1330
work and the product can be built.
1331
1332
1333
1334
Executive level review to begin initial manufacturing -
1335
Corporate stakeholders meet and review relevant product knowledge,
1336
including design stability, to determine whether a product is ready
1337
to initiate manufacturing of production representative prototypes
1338
used during system demonstrations. The decision is tied to the
1339
capture of knowledge.
1340
1341
1342
Demonstrating the Design Helped Achieve
1343
Stability
1344
A key tool used by each company to ensure that a product's
1345
design was stable by the end of the product integration phase was a
1346
demonstration that the design would meet requirements. The
1347
companies visited indicated that prototypes at various system
1348
levels were the best way to demonstrate that the product's design
1349
would work. If the product under development was an incremental
1350
improvement to existing products, such as the next generation of a
1351
printer or engine, these companies used virtual prototypes for any
1352
components that were being used for the first time. If the product
1353
included more new content or invention, fully integrated prototypes
1354
were frequently used to demonstrate that the design met
1355
requirements. Prototypes at this stage in development were
1356
typically not built in a manufacturing facility. This allowed
1357
demonstrations of the design before the companies made more costly
1358
investments in manufacturing equipment and tooling to build
1359
production representative prototypes for the demonstration phase.
1360
Table 4 shows an example of the types and purposes for various
1361
kinds of prototypes used by Cummins Inc. depending on the amount of
1362
knowledge it needed to capture and the point it was in the
1363
development process. Prototypes were used by commercial companies
1364
throughout the product development process and not just during
1365
product integration.
1366
Table 4: Examples of Prototypes Used by Cummins Inc. at Various
1367
Stages of Product Development
1368
Product integration Product demonstration Production
1369
Prototype Engineering prototypes (virtual or Production
1370
representative prototypes Initial products physical)
1371
Purpose Demonstrate form, fit and function, and Demonstrate the
1372
product is capable, Demonstrate ready for full rate a stable design
1373
reliable, and manufacturing production processes in statistical
1374
control
1375
Build environment Engineering Manufacturing Production (all rate
1376
tooling) (1st set of production tooling)
1377
Cummins, the world sales leader in diesel engines over 200
1378
horsepower, effectively uses prototypes to ensure that a design is
1379
stable and believes in the value of prototyping throughout product
1380
development. A Cummins representative stated that not using
1381
prototypes becomes a matter of "pay me now or pay me later,"
1382
meaning that it is far less costly to demonstrate a product's
1383
design early in development with prototypes, concepts, and analyses
1384
than to incur the cost of significant design changes after a
1385
product has entered production-a much more costly environment to
1386
make changes. Cummins built and tested 12 engineering concept
1387
prototype engines for its Signature 600 engine, a new concept, 600
1388
horsepower,
1389
Disciplined Reviews and Stakeholder
1390
Agreements Supported the Capture of Design Knowledge
1391
overhead cam diesel engine that represented a quantum leap in
1392
performance beyond Cummins' existing products. These prototypes
1393
were built using production-like tooling and methods using
1394
production workers. In addition to using engineering prototypes
1395
during the product integration phase of product development,
1396
Cummins and other companies we visited used other prototypes-such
1397
as production representative prototypes-in the remaining product
1398
development phases before production, as shown in table 4, to
1399
demonstrate product reliability and process control. Prior to
1400
reaching production for its Signature 600 engine, Cummins used many
1401
prototypes to complete hundreds of thousands of test hours,
1402
accumulating millions of test miles.
1403
Caterpillar, a major manufacturer of heavy equipment, has a
1404
continuous product improvement philosophy. That is, it tries to
1405
develop new products that increase the capabilities of existing
1406
product lines, but it limits the amount of new content on any one
1407
product development because new content inherently increases design
1408
risk. In evolving its products this way, Caterpillar is able to use
1409
modeling and simulation prior to initial manufacturing because it
1410
has existing products to provide a baseline of knowledge and a good
1411
benchmark for assessing the simulated performance. In addition,
1412
with knowledge of existing components, it can focus attention on
1413
maturing the new content, the higher risk element of the new
1414
product. When Caterpillar developed the 797 mining truck, a new
1415
360ton payload truck design, it demonstrated design stability by
1416
identifying the critical components and building engineering
1417
prototypes of them for reliability testing and demonstration of the
1418
design before beginning initial manufacturing. This knowledge,
1419
coupled with vast experience in manufacturing trucks, ensured the
1420
stability of the 797-truck design before initial manufacturing
1421
started. Caterpillar was able to deliver this design in 18 months
1422
after the product development was started.
1423
The commercial companies we visited understood the importance of
1424
having disciplined design reviews and getting agreement from the
1425
stakeholders that the product's design had been demonstrated to
1426
meet requirements before beginning initial manufacturing. Each
1427
company had a design review process that began at the component
1428
level, continued through the subsystem level, and culminated with a
1429
critical design review of the integrated system to determine if the
1430
product was ready to progress to the next phase of development. In
1431
addition to design engineers, a crossfunctional team of
1432
stakeholders in the process included key suppliers, manufacturing
1433
representatives, and service and maintenance representatives. From
1434
past experience, commercial companies have
1435
Executive Level Reviews Were Required to
1436
Begin Initial Manufacturing
1437
discovered that cross-functional teams provide a complete
1438
perspective of the product. While design engineers bring important
1439
skills and experience to creating a product design, they may not be
1440
aware of manufacturing issues, available technologies, or
1441
manufacturing processes, and they may design a product that the
1442
company cannot afford to produce or maintain.
1443
The product's design is stable when all stakeholders agree that
1444
engineering drawings are complete and that the design will work and
1445
can be built. A commercial company considers engineering drawings4
1446
to be a good measure of the demonstrated stability of the product's
1447
design because they represent the language used by engineers to
1448
communicate to the manufacturers the details of a new product
1449
design-what it looks like, how its components interface, how it
1450
functions, how to build it, and what critical materials and
1451
processes are required to fabricate and test it. The engineering
1452
drawing package released to manufacturing includes items such as
1453
the schematic of the product's components, interface control
1454
documents, a listing of materials, notations of critical
1455
manufacturing processes, and testing requirements. It is this
1456
package that allows a manufacturer to build the product in the
1457
manufacturing facility.
1458
In developing the Signature 600, Cummins used cross-functional
1459
design teams that included stakeholders from suppliers, machine
1460
tool manufacturers, foundry and pattern makers, purchasing,
1461
finance, manufacturing engineering, design engineering, and other
1462
technical disciplines. Signature 600 components were designed with
1463
the key suppliers co-located at the Cummins design facility.
1464
Likewise, Caterpillar said that early supplier and manufacturing
1465
involvement was critical to success and that engineering drawings
1466
were signed by design and manufacturing stakeholders. Caterpillar
1467
representatives said that signing the drawings was a certification
1468
that the design could be manufactured the next day, if
1469
necessary.
1470
Each commercial company, after capturing specific design
1471
knowledge, had an executive level review at the decision point to
1472
determine if the product design had sufficiently progressed to
1473
permit a transition from product integration to product
1474
demonstration. This decision point used the knowledge captured as
1475
exit criteria for moving to the next phase of development. For
1476
example, to demonstrate the product design was stable
1477
4 Engineering drawings can include the standard two-dimensional
1478
drawings or newer threedimensional drawings that are the product of
1479
computer-aided design software systems.
1480
Page 36 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
1481
Manufacturing and Product Reliability
1482
Knowledge Should Be Captured before Starting Production
1483
and ready to move from integration to demonstration, the design
1484
had to be demonstrated, at least 90 percent of the engineering
1485
drawings had to be completed, design reviews had to be completed,
1486
and stakeholders had to agree the design was complete and
1487
producible. If the design team could not satisfy the exit criteria,
1488
then other options had to be considered. Options included canceling
1489
the development program, delaying the decision until all criteria
1490
were met, or moving ahead with a detailed plan to achieve criteria
1491
not met by a specific time when leadership would revisit the other
1492
options. One company emphasized that if a major milestone is
1493
delayed, an appropriate adjustment should be made to the end date
1494
of the program, thereby avoiding compressing the time allotted for
1495
the rest of product development and managing the risks that
1496
subsequent milestones will be missed.
1497
This decision point coincides with the companies' need to
1498
increase investments in the product development and continue to the
1499
next phase. For this reason, the decision point was considered
1500
critical to achieving success in product development and could not
1501
be taken lightly. For example, transitioning from the integration
1502
to the demonstration phase requires a significant investment to
1503
start building and testing production representative prototypes in
1504
a manufacturing environment. This requires establishing a supplier
1505
base and purchasing materials. In addition, establishing tooling
1506
and manufacturing capability is also required. After a product
1507
passes this decision point and added investments are made, the cost
1508
of making changes to the product design also increases
1509
significantly. Therefore, commercial companies strive to firm the
1510
design as early in the process as possible when it is significantly
1511
cheaper to make changes.
1512
We found that leading commercial companies used two tools to
1513
capture knowledge that a product's design was reliable and
1514
producible within cost, schedule, and quality targets before making
1515
a production decision. These tools are (1) a quality concept that
1516
uses statistical process control to bring critical manufacturing
1517
processes under control so they are repeatable, sustainable, and
1518
consistently producing parts within the quality tolerances and
1519
standards of the product and (2) product tests in operational
1520
conditions that ensure the system would meet reliability goals-the
1521
ability to work without failure or need of maintenance for
1522
predictable intervals. Company officials told us that these two
1523
tools enabled a smooth transition from product development to
1524
production, resulting in better program outcomes. Companies
1525
employed these tools on production representative prototypes,
1526
making the prototypes a key ingredient to successful outcomes.
1527
Table 5 shows the activities required to capture manufacturing
1528
knowledge that leads to executive decisions about whether to
1529
transition from product development into production.
1530
Table 5: Activities to Capture Manufacturing Knowledge and Make
1531
Decisions
1532
1533
Activities to Achieve Manufacturing Knowledge
1534
1535
1536
1537
Identify key system characteristics and critical
1538
manufacturing processes - Key product characteristics and critical
1539
manufacturing processes are identified. Because there can be
1540
thousands of manufacturing processes required to build a product,
1541
companies focus on the critical processes-those that build parts
1542
that influence the product's key characteristics such as
1543
performance, service life, or manufacturability.
1544
1545
1546
1547
Determine processes in control and capable - Statistical
1548
process control is used to determine if the processes are
1549
consistently producing parts. Once control is established, an
1550
assessment is made to measure the process's ability to build a part
1551
within specification limits as well as how close the part is to
1552
that specification. A process is considered capable when it has a
1553
defect rate of less than 1 out of every 15,152 parts
1554
produced.
1555
1556
1557
1558
Conduct failure modes and effects analysis - Bottom-up
1559
analysis is done to identify potential failures for product
1560
reliability. It begins at the lowest level of the product design
1561
and continues to each higher tier of the product until the entire
1562
product has been analyzed. It allows early design changes to
1563
correct potential problems before fabricating hardware.
1564
1565
1566
1567
Set reliability growth plan and goals - A product's
1568
reliability is its ability to perform over an expected period of
1569
time without failure, degradation, or need of repair. A growth plan
1570
is developed to mature the product's reliability over time through
1571
reliability growth testing so that it has been demonstrated by the
1572
time production begins.
1573
1574
1575
1576
Conduct reliability growth testing -Reliability growth is
1577
the result of an iterative design, build, test, analyze, and fix
1578
process for a product's design with the aim of improving the
1579
product's reliability over time. Design flaws are uncovered and the
1580
design of the product is matured.
1581
1582
1583
1584
Conduct executive level review to begin production -
1585
Corporate stakeholders meet and review relevant product knowledge,
1586
including manufacturing and reliability knowledge, to determine
1587
whether a product is ready to begin production. The decision is
1588
tied to the capture of knowledge.
1589
1590
1591
1592
or manufacturability. Therefore, when design engineers are
1593
designing the new product, they must identify its key
1594
characteristics so that manufacturing engineers can identify and
1595
control critical manufacturing processes. Key product
1596
characteristics and critical manufacturing processes are noted on
1597
the engineering drawings and work instructions that are released to
1598
manufacturing.
1599
Once critical processes are identified, companies perform
1600
capability studies to ensure that a process will produce parts that
1601
meet specifications. These studies yield a process capability index
1602
(Cpk), a measure of the process's ability to build a part within
1603
specified limits. The index can be translated into an expected
1604
product defect rate. The industry standard is to have a Cpk of 1.33
1605
or higher, which equates to a probability that 99.99 percent of the
1606
parts built on that process will be within the specified limits.
1607
Four of the five5 companies we visited wanted their critical
1608
processes at a minimum of a 1.33 Cpk and many had goals of
1609
achieving higher Cpks. Table 6 shows various Cpk values and the
1610
defect rate associated with each value. The table also shows the
1611
higher the Cpk, the lower the defect rate.
1612
Table 6: Cpk Index and Probability of a Defective Part
1613
1614
Cpk values also have an additive effect on various individual
1615
parts when each part is integrated into the final product. For
1616
example, a product composed of 25 parts, where each part is
1617
produced on a manufacturing process with a Cpk of 0.67, has a 95.5
1618
percent probability that each part will be defect free. However,
1619
when all 25 parts are assembled into the final product, the
1620
probability that the final product will be defect free is only 32
1621
percent. In comparison, if the same parts are produced with
1622
manufacturing processes at a Cpk of 1.33, the probability of each
1623
part being defect free is 99.99 percent. When these same 25 parts
1624
are assembled into the final product, the probability that the
1625
final product will be defect free is
1626
5 The fifth company wanted its critical manufacturing processes
1627
at a minimum of 1 Cpk.
1628
99.8 percent. This comparison illustrates the impact that having
1629
manufacturing processes in control has on the amount of rework and
1630
repair that would be needed to correct defects and make the product
1631
meet its specifications.
1632
Cummins uses statistical process control data to measure a
1633
product's readiness for production. In developing the new Signature
1634
600 diesel engine, Cummins included manufacturing engineers and
1635
machine tool and fixture suppliers in the design decision process
1636
as the engine concept was first being defined. Cummins built
1637
production representative prototypes of its engines to demonstrate
1638
that the design and the engine hardware would perform to
1639
requirements. These prototypes represented the first attempt to
1640
build the product solely using manufacturing personnel, production
1641
tooling, and production processes. Cummins used the knowledge
1642
captured from these and subsequent prototypes to refine and
1643
eventually validate the manufacturing processes for the engine.
1644
This process of employing statistical process control techniques on
1645
prototype engines verified that the manufacturing processes were
1646
capable of manufacturing the product to high quality standards
1647
within established cost and schedule targets.
1648
Other companies we visited emphasized the importance of
1649
controlling manufacturing processes before committing to
1650
production. For example, Xerox captures knowledge about the
1651
producibility of its product early in the design phase. By
1652
production, it strives to have all critical manufacturing processes
1653
for the product-including key suppliers' processes-in control with
1654
a Cpk index of at least 1.33. Xerox achieves this by building
1655
production representative prototypes and by requiring suppliers of
1656
key components and subassemblies to produce an adequate sample of
1657
parts to demonstrate the suppliers' processes can be controlled,
1658
usually before the parts are incorporated into the prototypes.
1659
General Electric Aircraft Engines has digitally captured, and made
1660
available to design engineers, Cpk data on almost all of its
1661
manufacturing processes and it strives to have critical processes
1662
in control to a point where they will yield no more than 1 defect
1663
in 500 million parts, a Cpk of 2.0. Other companies, such as
1664
Caterpillar and Hewlett Packard, told us that getting manufacturing
1665
processes in control prior to production is key to meeting cost,
1666
schedule, and quality targets. Each of the companies visited used
1667
this as an indicator of the product's readiness for production and
1668
emphasized the importance of having critical manufacturing
1669
processes under control by the start of production.
1670
Demonstrating Product Reliability Indicates
1671
the Product Is Ready for Production
1672
A product is reliable when it can perform over a specified
1673
period of time without failure, degradation, or need of repair.
1674
Reliability is a function of the specific elements of a product's
1675
design. Making design changes to achieve reliability requirements
1676
after production begins is inefficient and costly. Reliability
1677
growth testing provides visibility over how reliability is
1678
improving and uncovers design problems so fixes can be incorporated
1679
before production begins.
1680
In general, reliability growth is the result of an iterative
1681
design, build, test, analyze, and fix process. Prototype hardware
1682
is key to testing for reliability growth. Initial prototypes for a
1683
complex product with major technological advances have inherent
1684
deficiencies. As the prototypes are tested, failures occur and, in
1685
fact, are desired so that the product's design can be made more
1686
reliable. Reliability improves over time with design changes or
1687
manufacturing process improvements. The earlier this takes place,
1688
the less impact it will have on the development and production
1689
program. Companies we visited matured a product's reliability
1690
through these tests and demanded proof that the product would meet
1691
the customer's reliability expectations prior to making a
1692
production decision.
1693
Improvements in the reliability of a product's design can be
1694
measured by tracking a key reliability metric over time. This
1695
metric compares the product's actual reliability to a growth plan
1696
and ultimately to the overall reliability goal. Several commercial
1697
companies we visited began gathering this data very early in
1698
development and tracked it throughout development. The goal was to
1699
demonstrate the product would meet reliability requirements before
1700
starting full rate production.
1701
Caterpillar establishes a plan to grow and demonstrate the
1702
product's reliability before fabrication of a production
1703
representative prototype begins. Before Caterpillar starts making
1704
parts, it estimates the product's reliability in its current stage
1705
of development based on knowledge captured from failure modes and
1706
effects analysis,6 component prototype testing, and past product
1707
experience. This information marks the starting point for the
1708
product's reliability growth plan and is the basis for assessing
1709
whether the plan is achievable by production. If Caterpillar
1710
believes the risks are too
1711
6 Failure modes and effects analysis is a bottom-up approach to
1712
failure identification. It should begin at the lowest level of the
1713
product design. Through analysis potential failure modes are
1714
identified allowing early design change to correct potential
1715
problems before fabricating hardware-a more cost-effective time to
1716
identify and fix problems.
1717
Page 41 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
1718
Executive Level Reviews Are Conducted to
1719
Begin Production
1720
high and the goal cannot be achieved on time, decision makers
1721
assess trade-offs between new and existing components to reduce the
1722
risks to a more manageable level. Trade-offs might be made if the
1723
product's performance still fails to meet requirements. If
1724
trade-offs are not possible, decision makers may decide not to go
1725
forward with the development. Once Caterpillar has established this
1726
plan, it tracks demonstrated reliability against it as a management
1727
tool to measure progress. It sets an interim reliability milestone
1728
and expects to be at least halfway toward the expected goal by the
1729
time it begins to build production units. Caterpillar has learned
1730
from experience that it will achieve the full reliability goal by
1731
full production if it meets the interim goal by the time it
1732
produces pilot production units. If the reliability is not growing
1733
as expected, then decisions about changing or improving the design
1734
must be addressed.
1735
Caterpillar improves the product's reliability during
1736
development by testing prototypes, uncovering failures, and
1737
incorporating design changes. According to Caterpillar officials,
1738
the production decision will be delayed if they are not on track to
1739
meeting their reliability goal. These officials told us that
1740
Caterpillar maintains the philosophy of first getting the design
1741
right, then producing it as quickly and efficiently as possible.
1742
They emphasized that demonstrating reliability before production
1743
minimized the potential for costly design changes once the product
1744
is fielded.
1745
The commercial companies, after capturing specific manufacturing
1746
knowledge, had executive level reviews to determine if the product
1747
development had sufficiently progressed to permit a transition into
1748
production. Executives used the knowledge captured as exit criteria
1749
for the transition. For example, to demonstrate the product was
1750
ready for production, critical processes had to be in control and
1751
testing should have demonstrated the product reliability. If the
1752
design team could not satisfy the exit criteria, then other options
1753
had to be considered. The production decision led to increased
1754
investments for materials and resources such as additional tooling
1755
to build the product at a planned rate, facilities, people,
1756
training and support.
1757
When DOD Programs More Closely Approximated
1758
Best Practices, Outcomes Were Better
1759
Our analysis of DOD programs showed that those more closely
1760
approximating best practices had better outcomes. The F/A-18 E/F
1761
fighter and the AIM-9X missile were based extensively on
1762
predecessor programs and employed similar tools to capture design
1763
and manufacturing knowledge at critical program junctures. These
1764
programs had demonstrated a significantly higher degree of design
1765
stability prior to entering system demonstration and committing to
1766
initial manufacturing when compared to other DOD weapon programs in
1767
our review. They also gained control of most of their manufacturing
1768
processes and demonstrated that the products were reliable before
1769
entering production. The success of these programs is best
1770
demonstrated by the fact that they have been close to meeting cost,
1771
schedule, and performance objectives. On the other hand, the PAC-3
1772
missile, F-22 fighter, and ATIRCM/CMWS programs did not use these
1773
best practices. These programs were not based on predecessor
1774
products or evolutionary in nature, and each product's full
1775
capability was expected in one step, with the first product off the
1776
production line. With this daunting task, these programs failed to
1777
demonstrate a stable design before committing to initial
1778
manufacturing, causing quality and labor problems. These programs
1779
also had much less knowledge about the manufacturability of their
1780
design when they entered production. As a result, they experienced
1781
significant increases in development costs and production delays
1782
usually at the expense of other DOD programs. Details on the five
1783
DOD programs follow.
1784
AIM-9X Missile Program The AIM-9X
1785
development practices closely paralleled best practices used by the
1786
commercial companies we visited. The program achieved design
1787
stability before moving into system demonstration by incorporating
1788
mature technologies and components from other missiles and
1789
munitions, using engineering prototypes to demonstrate the design,
1790
holding a series of design reviews prior to the system level
1791
critical design review, and completing and releasing 95 percent of
1792
the engineering drawings at that time. Figure 6 shows the building
1793
of knowledge required to achieve a stable design on the AIM-9X.
1794
Figure 6: Achieving Stability on AIM-9X Missile Program by
1795
Knowledge Point 2
1796
1797
Source: GAO's analysis.
1798
The AIM-9X program made extensive use of engineering prototypes
1799
to stabilize the missile's design before building production
1800
representative prototypes. Program officials stated that testing of
1801
engineering prototypes uncovered problems with missile design and
1802
manufacturing tooling early in the development, during system
1803
integration, allowing time to re-design and re-test in follow-on
1804
configurations. According to program officials, this not only
1805
helped stabilize the design before entering initial manufacturing
1806
but grew system reliability and reduced total ownership costs. The
1807
program also held design reviews for each of the major subsystems,
1808
allowing the program to achieve and demonstrate a stable design in
1809
July 1999, before beginning initial manufacturing of production
1810
representative prototypes.
1811
While the AIM-9X used statistical process control only to a
1812
limited extent, other factors have allowed it to have a more
1813
successful production outcome to date. Program officials took steps
1814
to ensure that manufacturing aspects of the product were included
1815
in the design, including empowering a product leader with a
1816
manufacturing background, identifying the key characteristics and
1817
critical manufacturing processes early, making design trade-offs to
1818
enhance manufacturing capability, and demonstrating a robust design
1819
to make the product less vulnerable to variations in manufacturing
1820
process. In addition, the ability to achieve design stability at
1821
the critical design review allowed program officials to focus the
1822
system demonstration phase on maturing the manufacturing processes.
1823
Prior to committing to production, the program demonstrated that
1824
the product could be efficiently
1825
F/A-18 E/F Program
1826
built using production processes, people, tools, and facilities
1827
to build prototypes. According to the former program manager, these
1828
steps gave the officials knowledge that a reliable product could be
1829
produced within cost and schedule targets prior to entering
1830
production. To date, the AIM-9X program has largely met its
1831
production targets.
1832
The F/A-18 E/F aircraft development program was able to take
1833
advantage of knowledge captured in developing and manufacturing
1834
prior versions of the aircraft. This evolutionary approach
1835
significantly contributed to the cost and schedule successes of
1836
this program. Because the F/A-18 E/F was a variant of the older
1837
F/A-18 aircraft, the developer had prior knowledge of design and
1838
manufacturing problems. This knowledge, coupled with the use of
1839
modeling and computer-aided design software, helped create a design
1840
that was easier to manufacture. While the program did not fully use
1841
each of the best practices, it did embrace the concepts of
1842
capturing design and manufacturing knowledge early in the
1843
program.
1844
During the program's critical design review, about 56 percent of
1845
the drawings were completed and, while the program did not meet the
1846
best practice of 90 percent complete, it did have additional
1847
drawing data of the F/A-18 E/F assemblies available for review at
1848
the critical design review. The Navy used early versions of the
1849
F/A-18 aircraft to demonstrate new component designs and new
1850
materials. In addition, the aircraft was designed to have 42
1851
percent fewer parts than its predecessor, making its design more
1852
robust. The program also identified the critical manufacturing
1853
processes and collected statistical process control data early in
1854
product development. At the start of production, 78 percent of
1855
these critical processes were in control. Unit costs for the F/A-18
1856
E/F program have not grown since the critical design review and its
1857
schedule has been delayed by only 3 months.
1858
F-22 Fighter Program
1859
The F-22 program is structured to provide the product's full
1860
capability with the first product off the production line-an
1861
extreme design challenge. This required the product design to
1862
include many new and unproven technologies, designs, and
1863
manufacturing processes. It did not demonstrate design stability
1864
until about 3 years after it held its critical design review. The
1865
program completed 3,070 initial engineering drawings at its
1866
critical design review in 1995, about 26 percent of the eventual
1867
drawings needed. It did not complete 90 percent of the necessary
1868
engineering drawings until 1998, after the first two development
1869
aircraft were delivered. Figure 7 shows the drawing completion
1870
history for the program.
1871
Figure 7: History of Drawing Completion for the F-22 Program
1872
1873
Source: GAO's analysis.
1874
After its critical design review, the F-22 program encountered
1875
several design and manufacturing problems that resulted in design
1876
changes, labor inefficiencies, cost increases, and schedule delays.
1877
For example, delivery of the aft fuselage-the rear aircraft body
1878
section-was late for several of the test aircraft and two ground
1879
test articles because of late parts and difficulties with the
1880
welding process. According to the F-22 program office, design
1881
maturity and manufacturing problems caused a "rolling wave" effect
1882
throughout system integration and final assembly. Late engineering
1883
drawing releases to the factory floor resulted in parts shortages
1884
and work performed out of sequence. These events contributed to
1885
significant cost overruns and delays to aircraft deliveries to the
1886
flight test program.
1887
The F-22 program initially had taken steps to use statistical
1888
process control data during development and gain control of
1889
critical manufacturing processes by the full rate production
1890
decision. In 1998,7 we reported that the program had identified 926
1891
critical manufacturing processes and had almost 40 percent in
1892
control 2 years before production was scheduled to begin. Although
1893
this did not match the standard set by commercial companies, it
1894
offered major improvements over what other DOD programs had
1895
attempted or achieved. Unfortunately, citing budgetary constraints
1896
and specific hardware quality problems that demanded attention, the
1897
program abandoned this best practices approach in 2000 with less
1898
than 50 percent of it critical manufacturing processes in control.
1899
Currently, the program is using post-assembly inspection to
1900
identify and fix defects rather than statistical process control
1901
techniques to prevent them. In March 2002,8 we recommended that the
1902
F-22 program office monitor the status of critical manufacturing
1903
processes as the program proceeds toward high rate production. The
1904
program stated that it would assess the processes status as the
1905
program moves forward.
1906
The program entered limited production despite being
1907
substantially behind its plan to achieve reliability goals. A key
1908
reliability requirement for the F-22 is mean time between
1909
maintenance, defined as the number of operating hours for the
1910
aircraft divided by the number of maintenance actions. The
1911
reliability goal for the F-22 is a 3-hour mean time between
1912
maintenance. The Air Force estimated that in late 2001, when the
1913
F-22 entered limited production, it should have been able to
1914
demonstrate almost 2 flying hours between maintenance actions.
1915
However, when it actually began limited production it could only
1916
fly an average of 0.44 hours between maintenance actions. In other
1917
words, the F-22 is requiring significantly more maintenance actions
1918
than planned. Additionally, the program has been slow to fix and
1919
correct problems that have affected reliability. To date, the
1920
program has identified about 260 different types of failures, such
1921
as main landing gear tires wearing out more quickly than planned,
1922
fasteners being damaged, and canopy delaminating. It has identified
1923
fixes for less than 50 percent of these failures. Ideally, the
1924
design fixes for the failures should be corrected prior to
1925
manufacturing production units.
1926
7 U.S. General Accounting Office, Best Practices: Successful
1927
Application to Weapon Acquisition Requires Changes in DOD's
1928
Environment
1929
GAO/NSIAD-98-56(Washington, D.C.: Feb. 24, 1998).
1930
8 U.S. General Accounting Office, Tactical Aircraft: F-22 Delays
1931
Indicate Initial Production Rates Should Be Lower to Reduce Risks
1932
GAO-02-298 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5, 2002).
1933
Page 47 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
1934
PAC-3 Missile Program The PAC-3 missile did
1935
not achieve design stability until after the building of production
1936
representative prototypes for system demonstration began. At the
1937
program's critical design review, the PAC-3 program had completed
1938
980 engineering drawings-21 percent of the eventual drawings needed
1939
for the missile. Since then, almost 3,700 more drawings have been
1940
completed. The total number of drawings expected to represent the
1941
completed design grew from about 2,900 at the critical design
1942
review to almost 4,700 as of July 2001. This uncertainty in the
1943
expected drawings not only indicates that the design was not stable
1944
when initial manufacturing began but also shows that there was a
1945
significant lack of knowledge about the design. Figure 8 shows the
1946
design knowledge at the critical design review, when the decision
1947
was made to commit to initial manufacturing of the missile.
1948
Figure 8: PAC-3 Design Knowledge at Critical Design Review
1949
1950
Source: GAO's analysis.
1951
Prototypes of the product design were not built before the
1952
critical design review or before initial manufacturing started to
1953
show that the design would work. Therefore, because of the immature
1954
design, initially manufactured development missiles were hand-made,
1955
took longer to build than planned, and suffered from poor quality.
1956
As a result, many design and manufacturing problems surfaced during
1957
system demonstration. Subsystems did not fit together properly, and
1958
many failed ground and environmental tests the first time. The
1959
contractor attributed $100 million of additional cost to first time
1960
manufacturing problems.
1961
Prior to entering limited production in 1999, the program had
1962
less than 40 percent of the critical manufacturing processes in
1963
control for assembling the missile and the seeker. According to
1964
program officials, there was little emphasis during development or
1965
initial production on using statistical control on critical
1966
manufacturing processes. Most of the development missiles were
1967
built in specialty shops rather than in a manufacturing
1968
environment. The result was a lack of knowledge about whether the
1969
critical manufacturing processes could produce the product to
1970
established cost, schedule, and quality targets. This uncertainty
1971
is reflected in contractor estimates that more than 50 percent of
1972
the time charged to build the initial production missiles will be
1973
for engineering activities. Actual production labor is expected to
1974
account for about 30 percent of the charged time.
1975
To further understand the problems on the PAC-3 program, we
1976
focused on its seeker subsystem, which is key to acquiring and
1977
tracking targets and represents a large percentage of the missile's
1978
cost. Currently, despite being in production, it is unclear whether
1979
the supplier of the seeker can produce it within cost, schedule,
1980
and quality targets. During development, the supplier had
1981
difficulty in designing and manufacturing this subsystem. It was
1982
not uncommon for seekers to be built, tested, and reworked seven or
1983
eight times before they were acceptable. The program entered
1984
production, despite these producibility issues. Now, even with 2
1985
years of production experience, the supplier continues to have
1986
difficulty producing the seeker with acceptable quality. Data
1987
provided by the supplier in October 2001 showed that less than 25
1988
percent of the seekers were being manufactured properly the first
1989
time and the rest had to be reworked, on average, four times.
1990
ATIRCM/CMWS Program According to program
1991
officials, ATIRCM/CMWS did not have a stable design until about 2
1992
years after the critical design review. A contributing factor to
1993
this was a lack of understanding about the full requirements for
1994
the new system at the critical design review in 1997. This led to a
1995
major redesign of the common missile warning system's sensor. At
1996
the critical design review, only 21 percent of a product's
1997
engineering drawings had been completed. It did not complete 90
1998
percent drawings-the best practice-until 1999. The immature design
1999
caused inefficiencies in manufacturing, rework, and delayed
2000
deliveries. In addition, between 1995 and 1999, the development
2001
contract target price increased by 165 percent.
2002
The ATIRCM/CMWS program did not begin reliability growth testing
2003
until 4 years after its critical design review, leaving only 1 year
2004
to test the system prior to scheduled production. Program officials
2005
said that an immature design limited their ability to begin
2006
reliability testing earlier in development. About one-third of the
2007
way through the reliability growth test program, testing was halted
2008
because too many failures occurred in components such as the power
2009
supply, the high voltage electrical system, and the cooling system.
2010
According to a program official, the inability to demonstrate
2011
system reliability contributed to a production delay of about 1
2012
year. The program plans to build, develop, and test six additional
2013
development units during 2002 and 2003 that will incorporate design
2014
changes to fix the system failures. ATIRCM/CMWS plans to enter
2015
limited production in the early part of 2002 with significantly
2016
less knowledge about the design's producibility than commercial
2017
companies. The contractor does not use statistical process control
2018
and has not identified critical manufacturing processes. A
2019
production readiness review identified the lack of statistical
2020
process control as a major weakness that needs to be corrected.
2021
Chapter 4
2022
A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to Ensure
2023
Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2024
The Department of Defense's (DOD) acquisition policy9
2025
establishes a good framework for developing weapon systems;
2026
however, disciplined adherence, more specific criteria, and
2027
stronger acquisition incentives are needed to ensure the timely
2028
capture and use of knowledge in decision making. DOD changed its
2029
acquisition policy to emphasize evolutionary acquisition and
2030
establish separate integration and demonstration phases in the
2031
product development process. Its goal was to develop higher quality
2032
systems in less time and for less cost. However, DOD's acquisition
2033
policy lacks detailed criteria for capturing and using design and
2034
manufacturing knowledge to facilitate better decisions and more
2035
successful acquisition program outcomes. As demonstrated by
2036
successful companies, using these criteria can help ensure that the
2037
right knowledge is collected at the right time and that it will
2038
provide the basis for key decisions to commit to significant
2039
increases in investment as product development moves forward.
2040
While the right policy and criteria are necessary to ensure a
2041
disciplined, knowledge-based product development process, the
2042
incentives that influence the key players in the acquisition
2043
process will ultimately determine whether they will be used
2044
effectively. In DOD, current incentives are geared toward delaying
2045
knowledge so as not to jeopardize program funding. These incentives
2046
undermine a knowledge-based process for making product development
2047
decisions. Instead, program managers and contractors push the
2048
capture of design and manufacturing knowledge to later in the
2049
development program to avoid the identification of problems that
2050
might stop or limit its funding. They focus more on meeting
2051
schedules than capturing and having the knowledge necessary to make
2052
the right decisions at those milestones. Such an approach
2053
invariably leads to added costs because programs are forced to fix
2054
problems late in development.
2055
By contrast, commercial companies must develop high-quality
2056
products quickly or they may not survive in the marketplace.
2057
Because of this, they encourage their managers to capture product
2058
design and manufacturing knowledge to identify and resolve problems
2059
early in development, before making significant increases in their
2060
investment. Instead of a scheduledriven process, their process is
2061
driven by events that bring them
2062
9 DOD Directive 5000.1, The Defense Acquisition System (Oct. 23,
2063
2000), DOD Instruction 5000.2, Operation of the Defense Acquisition
2064
System (Apr. 5, 2002), and DOD Regulation 5000.2-R, Mandatory
2065
Procedures for Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPS) and Major
2066
Automated Information System (MAIS) Acquisition Programs (Apr. 5,
2067
2002).
2068
Page 52 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
2069
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2070
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2071
Acquisition Policy Lacks Specific
2072
Implementation Criteria
2073
knowledge: critical design reviews that are supported by
2074
completed engineering drawings and production decisions that are
2075
supported by reliability testing and statistical process control
2076
data. They do not move forward without the design and manufacturing
2077
knowledge needed to make informed decisions.
2078
Greater emphasis on evolutionary acquisitions and structuring
2079
the product development process into two phases-system integration
2080
and system demonstration-were good first steps for DOD to achieve
2081
its goals of buying higher quality systems in less time and for
2082
lower costs. However, DOD policy still lacks criteria to be used to
2083
capture specific design and manufacturing knowledge and does not
2084
require the use of that knowledge as exit criteria at key decision
2085
points to transition from system integration to system
2086
demonstration and then into production. In three of the five DOD
2087
program examples in chapter 3, managers decided to move forward in
2088
development, even when developers had failed to capture design and
2089
manufacturing knowledge to support increased investments. As a
2090
result, these programs encountered significant increases in
2091
acquisition costs as well as delays in delivering capabilities to
2092
the war fighter.
2093
Table 7 illustrates key criteria used by commercial companies
2094
that are currently lacking in DOD's policy. The table shows the
2095
design and manufacturing knowledge needed to make more informed
2096
decisions. The capture of some of the important manufacturing and
2097
reliability knowledge should begin in the integration phase in
2098
order to have the full knowledge needed to make decisions at the
2099
end of the demonstration phase for transitioning into
2100
production.
2101
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2102
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2103
Table 7: Analysis of DOD Acquisition Policy for Inclusion of
2104
Best Practices for Knowledge-based Design and Manufacturing
2105
Decisions
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
According to DOD's current acquisition policy, the system
2111
integration phase of an acquisition normally begins with the
2112
decision to launch a program. The policy states that, during this
2113
phase, a system's configuration should be documented and the system
2114
should be demonstrated using prototypes in a relevant environment.
2115
While these are noteworthy activities and resemble best practices,
2116
the policy does not provide criteria for what constitutes the level
2117
of knowledge required for completing this stage, nor does it
2118
require a decision-based on those criteria-as to whether a
2119
significant, additional investment should be made. Commercial
2120
companies demand knowledge from virtual or engineering prototypes,
2121
90 percent of required engineering drawings for the product
2122
supported by test results, demonstration that the product meets
2123
customer requirements, a series of disciplined design reviews, and
2124
stakeholder agreement that the design is stable and ready for
2125
product demonstration before a commitment is made to move forward
2126
and invest in product demonstration. Under DOD's revised policy, it
2127
is still difficult to determine if a product should enter product
2128
demonstration with a stable design.
2129
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2130
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2131
DOD's current acquisition policy also states that the system
2132
demonstration phase begins after prototypes have been built and
2133
demonstrated in a relevant environment during system integration.
2134
According to the policy, a system must be demonstrated before the
2135
department will commit to production. The low-rate initial
2136
production decision occurs after this phase of product development.
2137
Like the end of system integration, the policy fails to provide
2138
specific criteria for what constitutes the knowledge required to
2139
support the decision to move into production. For example, the
2140
policy states there should be "no significant manufacturing risks"
2141
but does not define what this means or how it is measured. Without
2142
criteria for building knowledge during the demonstration phase, the
2143
production decision is often based on insufficient knowledge,
2144
creating a higher probability of inconsistent results and cost and
2145
schedule problems. On the other hand, commercial companies demand
2146
proof that manufacturing processes are in control and product
2147
reliability goals are attained before committing to production.
2148
With more specific knowledge in hand at the end of development,
2149
decision makers can make a more informed decision to move into
2150
production with assurances that the product will achieve its cost,
2151
schedule, and quality outcomes.
2152
Finally, while DOD's policy separates product development into a
2153
two-stage process-integration and demonstration-it does not require
2154
a decision milestone to move from one stage to the next. The policy
2155
states that an interim progress review should be held between the
2156
two stages, but the review has no established agenda and no
2157
required outputs of information unless specifically requested by
2158
the decision maker. Its purpose is to confirm that the program is
2159
progressing as planned. On the other hand, commercial companies
2160
consider this review a critical decision point in their product
2161
development process because it precedes a commitment to
2162
significantly increase their investment. Therefore, they use
2163
specific, knowledge-based standards and criteria to determine if
2164
the product is ready to enter the next phase and they hold decision
2165
makers accountable for their actions. These decision reviews are
2166
mandatory and are typically held at the executive level of the
2167
commercial firm.
2168
Figure 9 illustrates the commercial model for knowledge to be
2169
captured and delivered during product integration and product
2170
demonstration and the possible application of that model to DOD's
2171
acquisition process. Without a similar decision review to bring
2172
accountability to the DOD process, acquisition programs can-and
2173
do-continue to advance into system demonstration without a stable
2174
design. As shown in our case
2175
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2176
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2177
studies, this provides for a high probability of cost growth and
2178
schedule delays to occur.
2179
Figure 9: Illustration to Show How the Best Practice Model Would
2180
Apply to DOD's Acquisition Process
2181
2182
Source: GAO's analysis.
2183
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2184
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2185
Incentives in the DOD Acquisition
2186
Environment Do Not Favor Capture of Design and Manufacturing
2187
Knowledge Early Enough
2188
The incentives for program managers and product developers to
2189
gather knowledge and reduce risk are also critical to DOD's ability
2190
to adopt best practices for product development. In DOD, incentives
2191
are centered on obtaining scarce funding on an annual basis in a
2192
competitive environment to meet predetermined and typically
2193
optimistic program schedules. These incentives actually work
2194
against the timely capture of knowledge, pushing it off until late
2195
in the process to avoid problems that might keep a program from
2196
being funded. Because design and manufacturing knowledge is not
2197
captured, key decision points intended to measure and ensure that a
2198
weapon system has sufficiently matured to move forward in the
2199
process risk becoming unsupported by critical knowledge. In leading
2200
commercial companies, the opposite is true. Because companies know
2201
they have to deliver high-quality products quickly and affordably,
2202
they limit the challenge for their program managers and provide
2203
strong incentives to capture design and manufacturing knowledge
2204
early in the process. Program managers are empowered to make
2205
informed decisions before big investments in manufacturing
2206
capability are required.
2207
DOD's current acquisition environment is driven by incentives to
2208
make decisions while significant unknowns about the system's design
2209
and manufacturability persist. This environment results in higher
2210
risks and a greater reliance on cost-reimbursement10 contracts for
2211
longer periods of time during product development. Because events
2212
that should drive key decisions, such as critical design reviews,
2213
interim progress reviews, and production decision reviews, are
2214
based on inadequate design and manufacturing knowledge, they do not
2215
support decisions to invest more and move to the next phase of the
2216
acquisition process. Nevertheless, this approach has proven
2217
effective in securing funds year to year. For example, the F-22,
2218
PAC-3, and ATIRCMS/CMWS programs had less than one-third of their
2219
engineering drawings completed at their critical design review, but
2220
each obtained the funding necessary to move onto the initial
2221
manufacturing of production representative prototypes. That funding
2222
allowed a significant increase in investment to develop a
2223
manufacturing capability before critical
2224
10 Cost-reimbursement contracts provide for payment of allowable
2225
incurred costs, to the extent prescribed in the contracts. They are
2226
suitable for use only when uncertainties involved in contract
2227
performance, such as research and development work, do not permit
2228
costs to be estimated with sufficient accuracy. In contrast,
2229
fixed-priced contracts, except those subject to price adjustment,
2230
provide for a preestablished firm price, place maximum risk and
2231
full responsibility for all costs and resulting profit or loss on
2232
the contractor, and provide maximum incentive for the contractor to
2233
control costs and perform effectively.
2234
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2235
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2236
knowledge had been captured. The incentive to capture funding
2237
for the program was greater than the incentive to wait, capture
2238
knowledge, and reduce the risk of moving forward. Each of these
2239
programs encountered significant cost increases and schedule
2240
delays.
2241
The incentives are quite different for leading commercial
2242
companies. For them, the business case centers on the ability to
2243
produce a product that the customer will buy and that will provide
2244
an acceptable return on investment. If the firm has not made a
2245
sound business case, or has been unable to deliver on one or more
2246
of the business case factors, it faces a very real prospect of
2247
failure-the customer may walk away. Also, if one product
2248
development takes more time and money to complete than expected, it
2249
denies the firm opportunities to invest those resources in other
2250
products. For these reasons, commercial companies have strong
2251
incentives to capture product knowledge early in the process to
2252
assess the chances of making the business case and the need for
2253
further investments.
2254
Production is a dominant concern in commercial companies
2255
throughout the product development process and forces discipline
2256
and trade-offs in the design process. This environment encourages
2257
realistic assessments of risks and costs since doing otherwise
2258
would threaten the business case and invite failure. For the same
2259
reasons, the environment places a high value on knowledge for
2260
making decisions. Program managers have good reasons to identify
2261
risks early, be intolerant of unknowns, and not rely on testing
2262
late in the process as the main vehicle for discovering the
2263
performance characteristics of the product. By adhering to the
2264
business case as the key to success, program managers in leading
2265
commercial companies are conservative in their estimates and
2266
aggressive in risk reduction. Ultimately, adherence to the business
2267
case strengthens the ability to say "no" to pressures to accept
2268
high risks and unknowns. Practices such as prototyping, early
2269
manufacturing and supplier involvement, completing 90 percent of
2270
engineering drawings by critical design review, demonstrating
2271
product reliability, and achieving statistical control of critical
2272
manufacturing processes by production are adopted because they help
2273
ensure success.
2274
In DOD's current acquisition environment, the customer is
2275
willing to trade time and money for the highest performing weapon
2276
system possible. That willingness drives the business case. This
2277
creates strong incentives for the program office to take
2278
significant risks with technologies and designs to ensure it can
2279
offer the customer a weapon system that is a quantum leap above the
2280
competition. In addition, because funding is secured on an
2281
Chapter 4 A Better Match of Policy and Incentives Is Needed to
2282
Ensure Capture of Design and Manufacturing Knowledge
2283
annual basis in DOD, strong incentives exist for the program
2284
office to make optimistic assumptions about development cost and
2285
schedule. Because the customer is willing to wait and funding is
2286
never certain, an environment exists where program managers have
2287
good reasons to avoid the capture of knowledge and delay testing.
2288
Since the business case in DOD places very little premium on
2289
meeting cost and schedule targets, but a very high premium on
2290
performance, programs succeed at the point where sunk costs make it
2291
difficult-if not prohibitive-for decision makers to cancel
2292
them.
2293
The practices commercial companies use to capture knowledge are
2294
not currently used in this environment because the business case
2295
does not favor them. Instead, DOD's product development environment
2296
relies on cost-type contracting throughout the entire product
2297
development process. Once in production, programs will cut
2298
quantities to maintain funding or once fielded, they rely on the
2299
operations and maintenance budget to pay for reliability problems
2300
not solved in development.
2301
Chapter 5
2302
Conclusions and Recommendations
2303
The Department of Defense's (DOD) planned
2304
$700 billion investment in
2305
Conclusions
2306
weapon systems over the next 5 years requires an approach that
2307
keeps cost, schedule, and performance risks to a minimum. This
2308
approach means adopting and implementing an evolutionary approach
2309
to developing new weapon systems, improving policy to more closely
2310
approximate a knowledge-based product development process, and
2311
creating incentives for capturing and using knowledge for decision
2312
making. Without an evolutionary approach as its foundation, the
2313
ability to capture design and manufacturing knowledge early in the
2314
development process is significantly reduced. Programs, in turn,
2315
take on too much new unproven content to meet their objectives and
2316
risks invariably increase. DOD has made improvements in its
2317
acquisition policy by incorporating guidance for evolutionary
2318
acquisition, creating guidelines for the development of a basic
2319
product that can be upgraded with additional capabilities as
2320
technologies present themselves. However, evolutionary acquisition
2321
has yet to be consistently implemented with success on individual
2322
weapon system acquisitions.
2323
Regardless of whether DOD emphasized greater use of evolutionary
2324
acquisition, acquisition programs are not capturing sufficient
2325
design and manufacturing knowledge to make good decisions at key
2326
investment points. The current policy establishes a good framework
2327
to develop a product, but the policy still lacks specific criteria
2328
required to move a program forward and does not tie knowledge to
2329
decisions for increasing investments in the program as it moves
2330
from system integration to system demonstration. As a result,
2331
programs often pass through each development phase and into
2332
production with an unstable design and insufficient knowledge about
2333
critical manufacturing processes and product reliability. This
2334
results in greater likelihood for inconsistent and poor results and
2335
cost and schedule problems later in the program.
2336
Additionally, DOD does not provide the proper incentives to
2337
encourage the use of best practices in capturing knowledge early in
2338
its development programs. Currently, managers are focused more on
2339
the annual exercise of obtaining funding needed to keep their
2340
programs viable and alive. The importance of capturing design and
2341
manufacturing knowledge early gives way to the pressures of
2342
maintaining funding, often resulting in the acceptance of greater
2343
risks. Raising problems on a program early because design and
2344
manufacturing knowledge is discovered can cause extra oversight and
2345
questions that threaten a system's survival. The prevailing
2346
Recommendations for Executive Action
2347
culture is to accept greater risks upfront and then fix problems
2348
later in the development program.
2349
We found that leading commercial companies over the years had
2350
found ways to overcome these problems and had identified best
2351
practices that resulted in the early capture of and use of design
2352
and manufacturing knowledge. This was done by a combination of four
2353
key elements. First, they established and used an evolutionary
2354
approach to develop products that made the capture of design and
2355
manufacturing knowledge a more manageable task. This framework
2356
limited the design challenge for any one new product development by
2357
allowing risky technology, design, or manufacturing requirements to
2358
be deferred until a future generation of the product. DOD's current
2359
policy addresses this; however, it has not had sufficient time to
2360
show how this will be implemented.
2361
Second, each company we visited used the same basic product
2362
development process and criteria for bringing together and
2363
integrating all of the technologies, components, and subsystems
2364
required for the product to ensure the design was stable and then
2365
demonstrating that the product was producible and reliable using
2366
proven manufacturing processes. DOD's policy lacks the criteria to
2367
measure design stability and process controls. Third, successful
2368
companies used tools to capture design and manufacturing knowledge
2369
about the product and decide about whether to invest further based
2370
on that knowledge. Their new product development process included
2371
key, high-level decision points before moving into product
2372
demonstration, and again before making the production decision that
2373
required specific, knowledge-based exit criteria. DOD's policy does
2374
not require a decision to move from system integration to system
2375
demonstration. Finally, leading companies created an environment
2376
for their managers that emphasized capturing design and
2377
manufacturing knowledge early, before committing substantial
2378
investments in a product development that made cancellation a more
2379
difficult decision to make. DOD's environment encourages meeting
2380
schedule milestones instead of capturing design and manufacturing
2381
knowledge to make decisions.
2382
DOD should take steps to close the gaps between its current
2383
acquisition environment and best practices. To do this, it should
2384
ensure that its acquisition process captures specific design and
2385
manufacturing knowledge, includes decisions at key junctures in the
2386
development program, and provides incentives to use a
2387
knowledge-based process. Such changes are necessary to obtain
2388
greater predictability in weapon system
2389
Page 61 GAO-02-701 Best Practices
2390
programs' cost and schedule, to improve the quality of weapon
2391
systems once fielded, and to deliver new capability to the war
2392
fighter faster. More specifically, we recommend that the Secretary
2393
of Defense:
2394
• Require the capture of specific knowledge to be used as exit
2395
criteria for decision making at two key points-when transitioning
2396
from system integration to system demonstration and from system
2397
demonstration into production. The knowledge to be captured when
2398
moving from system integration into system demonstration should
2399
include the following:
2400
2401
2402
2403
Completed subsystem and system design reviews.
2404
2405
2406
2407
Ninety percent of drawings completed.
2408
2409
2410
2411
Demonstration that design meets requirements-prototype or
2412
variant testing.
2413
2414
2415
2416
Stakeholders' (cross functional design team that includes
2417
design engineers, manufacturing, key supplier) assurance that
2418
drawings are complete.
2419
2420
2421
2422
Completed failure modes and effects analysis.
2423
2424
2425
2426
Identification of key system characteristics.
2427
2428
2429
2430
Identification of critical manufacturing
2431
processes.
2432
2433
2434
2435
Set reliability targets and growth plan.
2436
2437
2438
The knowledge to be captured when moving from system
2439
demonstration into production should include the following:
2440
2441
2442
2443
Demonstrated manufacturing processes.
2444
2445
2446
2447
Built production representative prototypes.
2448
2449
2450
2451
Tested prototypes to achieve reliability goal.
2452
2453
2454
2455
Tested prototypes to demonstrate product in operational
2456
environment.
2457
2458
2459
2460
Collected statistical process control data.
2461
2462
2463
2464
Demonstration that critical processes are capable and in
2465
control.
2466
2467
2468
2469
2470
2471
Require that the interim progress review, currently
2472
identified in DOD's policy as that point in the process between
2473
system integration and system demonstration, be a mandatory
2474
decision review. At this point, the design should be demonstrated
2475
to be stable so that during the next phase of development attention
2476
can be focused on demonstrating manufacturing processes and product
2477
reliability. The program manager should have proof-based on the
2478
exit criteria for moving out of system integration in the above
2479
recommendation-that the product design is stable. The exit criteria
2480
should be demonstrated and verified by the program manager before
2481
the program can make the substantial investments needed to begin
2482
manufacturing production representative prototypes in the next
2483
phase of development-system demonstration. To ensure visibility of
2484
demonstrated exit criteria to decision makers, the criteria and the
2485
program's status in achieving them should be included in each
2486
program's Defense Acquisition Executive Summary and Selected
2487
Acquisition Reports. If the program does not meet the exit
2488
criteria, investments should be delayed until such time as the
2489
criteria are satisfied. To proceed without completing the required
2490
demonstrations should require approval by the decision
2491
authority.
2492
2493
2494
2495
Expand exit criteria for the Milestone C decision to
2496
include the knowledge to be captured during the system
2497
demonstration phase as identified in recommendation one. This will
2498
require that the program office demonstrate that the critical
2499
manufacturing processes are under statistical control and that
2500
product reliability has been demonstrated before entering
2501
production of the new weapon system. These are best practices and
2502
indicate that the product design is mature and the program is ready
2503
to begin production of units for operational use that will meet the
2504
cost, schedule, and quality goals of the program.
2505
2506
2507
2508
To ensure that contracts support a knowledge-based
2509
process, we further recommend that DOD structure its contracts for
2510
major weapon system acquisitions so that (a) the capture and use of
2511
knowledge described in recommendation one for beginning system
2512
demonstration is a basis for DOD's decision to invest in the
2513
manufacturing capability to build initial prototypes and (b) the
2514
capture and use of manufacturing and reliability knowledge
2515
discussed in recommendation one for moving from system
2516
2517
2518
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
2519
demonstration to production is a basis for DOD's decision to
2520
invest in production.
2521
DOD concurred with a draft of this report and agreed with the
2522
benefits of using design and manufacturing knowledge to make
2523
informed decisions at key points in a system acquisition program.
2524
DOD had some comments with regard to the details contained in the
2525
recommendations, which are summarized below. DOD concurred with our
2526
recommendation to add exit criteria at two key points in the
2527
acquisition process-when transitioning from system integration to
2528
system demonstration and from system demonstration into production.
2529
DOD believes, however, that the milestone decision authority needs
2530
to retain flexibility in applying the knowledge requirement for
2531
drawings. Flexibility and judgment are management prerogatives that
2532
should exist in any decision process. We agree there may be
2533
circumstances, such as in the development of software, when it
2534
makes good sense to progress with less than the best practice
2535
standard for drawings, but the DOD policy should maintain the
2536
requirement to achieve 90 percent drawings by the completion of the
2537
system integration phase.
2538
DOD also concurred that critical manufacturing processes must be
2539
demonstrated using statistical process control techniques before
2540
production, but believes that achieving this at Milestone C, the
2541
low rate production decision, is unlikely. It believes the criteria
2542
would be better applied to the full rate production decision or
2543
when low rate production quantities extend beyond 10 percent of the
2544
planned weapon system buy. This is a reasonable approach when
2545
processes are new or unique. However, not all critical processes
2546
will be new or unique to a specific weapon system. Some will have
2547
been used to manufacture parts or components for other systems or
2548
products. At a minimum, it should be possible to demonstrate these
2549
by Milestone C. For other critical processes that may require
2550
additional production experience to bring under statistical process
2551
control, a program manager should have a reasonable plan at the
2552
Milestone C decision review to bring those processes into control
2553
by the full rate production decision, but no later than completion
2554
of 10 percent of the planned buy.
2555
Appendix I
2556
Comments from the Department of Defense
2557
2558
2559
2560
2561
Appendix II
2562
GAO Staff Acknowledgments
2563
Cheryl Andrew, Cristina Chaplain, Michael
2564
Hazard, Matthew Lea, Gary
2565
Acknowledgments
2566
Middleton, Michael Sullivan, Katrina Taylor, and Adam
2567
Vodraska.
2568
Related GAO Products
2569
Defense Acquisitions: DOD Faces Challenges in Implementing Best
2570
Practices.
2571
GAO-02-469T. Washington, D.C.: February 27, 2002.
2572
Best Practices: Better Matching of Needs and Resources Will Lead
2573
to Better Weapon System Space Outcomes.
2574
GAO-01-288. Washington, D.C.: March 8, 2001.
2575
Best Practices: A More Constructive Test Approach Is Key to
2576
Better Weapon System Outcomes.
2577
GAO/NSIAD-00-199. Washington, D.C.: July 31, 2000.
2578
Defense Acquisition: Employing Best Practices Can Shape Better
2579
Weapon System Decisions.
2580
GAO/T-NSIAD-00-137. Washington, D.C.: April 26,
2581
2000.
2582
Best Practices: DOD Training Can Do More to Help Weapon System
2583
Programs Implement Best Practices.
2584
GAO/NSIAD-99-206. Washington,D.C.: August 16,
2585
1999.
2586
Best Practices: Better Management of Technology Development Can
2587
Improve Weapon System Outcomes.
2588
GAO/NSIAD-99-162. Washington, D.C.: July 30, 1999.
2589
Defense Acquisition: Best Commercial Practices Can Improve
2590
Program Outcomes.
2591
GAO/T-NSIAD-99-116. Washington, D.C.: March 17,
2592
1999.
2593
Defense Acquisition: Improved Program Outcomes Are Possible.
2594
GAO/T-NSIAD-98-123. Washington, D.C.: March 18,
2595
1998.
2596
Best Practices: DOD Can Help Suppliers Contribute More to Weapon
2597
System Programs.
2598
GAO/NSIAD-98-87. Washington, D.C.: March 17, 1998.
2599
Best Practices: Successful Application to Weapon Acquisitions
2600
Requires Changes in DOD's Environment.
2601
GAO/NSIAD-98-56. Washington, D.C.:February 24,
2602
1998.
2603
Major Acquisitions: Significant Changes Underway in DOD's Earned
2604
Value Management Process.
2605
GAO/NSIAD-97-108. Washington, D.C.: May 5, 1997.
2606
Best Practices: Commercial Quality Assurance Practices Offer
2607
Improvements for DOD.
2608
GAO/NSIAD-96-162. Washington, D.C.: August 26,
2609
1996.
2610
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2611
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