Hispanics
By Karenna
Gore
The U.S. Census Bureau
estimates that by 2010, Hispanics will outnumber blacks. This will make them
America's largest ethnic minority . In the 1996 election, as the general
voter turnout neared a record low, the Hispanic turnout soared, providing the
margin of victory in several key elections. Who are Hispanics, where do they
come from, and what is the political impact of this rapidly growing
population?
The
Census Bureau officially adopted the term "Hispanic" in 1970, applying it to
any U.S. resident whose ancestors lived in Spain or a Spanish colony. (The term
itself is derived from "Hispania," which was the Roman Empire's name for the
Iberian peninsula.)
The bureau's geography-based definition , which lumps
together blacks, whites, and those of mixed race, has provoked a heated debate.
Some complain that the categorization falsely homogenizes a diverse people
under a label linked to Spanish imperialism. These critics argue for the term
"Latino ," because it denotes self-definition, allows for more
subcategorization by nationality, and alludes to distant cultural origins
rather than a painful colonial past. "Latino" is Spanish for "Latin"; Latin was
the official language of Hispania, and "Latin America" was coined by
geographers in the 18 th century to describe the New World colonies
of Portugal and Spain.
Some Mexican-Americans refer
to themselves as "Chicanos ," a pejorative term from the 1920s for
lower-class Mexican immigrants that was embraced in the late 1960s and early
1970s by Mexican-Americans seeking a new political identity. The Chicano
movement celebrated the Indian roots of Mexican culture. As the "Chicano" label
fell out of vogue, many of its supporters joined forces with the "Latino" camp,
accusing the "Hispanic" partisans of grouping Mexican-Americans under their
rubric to inflate their numbers.
Today, the
debate boils down to personal preference, shown by clear regional patterns: In
California, "Latino" is generally the preferred term. In Florida, Texas, and
New Mexico, "Hispanic" is more common. In the Northeast, it's a tie.
The rapidly growing Hispanic population is
resulting in the "browning of America ." Over the last 16 years, the
Hispanic population has grown 93 percent--from 14.6 million to 28.2 million.
(The total U.S. population has grown 17 percent, from 226.5 million to 265.8
million.) By the year 2050, the Census Bureau estimates, Hispanics will
constitute 24.5 percent of the U.S. population, up from today's 10 percent.
Meanwhile, the percentage of Asian-Americans will grow from 3.3 percent to 8.2
percent, and the percentage of African-Americans will rise only slightly, from
12 percent to 13.6 percent. Midway through the next century, only 53 percent of
the U.S. population will be non-Hispanic white, down from 74 percent today.
The growth of the Hispanic
population is due to high birth rates and immigration . Hispanic
birth rates are significantly higher than average, because of Hispanics' lower
median age, higher poverty levels, and enduring cultural values that place a
premium on large families. The Census Bureau estimates annual net
immigration--legal and illegal--of 820,000, with the large majority being
Hispanic.
Hispanics
live in every state, but their numbers are greatest in California, Texas,
Florida, New York, and New Mexico. Of the Hispanics living in these states, 64
percent (concentrated in the Southwest) trace their roots to Mexico; 15 percent
(relatively evenly distributed) to Central and South America; 10 percent
(concentrated in New York) to Puerto Rico, and 5 percent (concentrated in
Florida) to Cuba.
Although Hispanic voters account for only 5 percent
of the electorate, they are significant voting blocks in key states and, most
of the time, they vote Democrat. In the recent presidential election, Hispanic
voter turnout increased 60 percent in Texas, 40 percent in California, and 10
percent in Florida, with roughly three out of four of all Hispanic votes going
to President Clinton (15 percentage points above his 1992 showing). In Arizona,
where a heavy Hispanic turnout was 10-to-1 for Clinton, Democrats won for the
first time since 1948.
Cuban-Americans have
traditionally voted solidly Republican. But in the last election, roughly half
of Florida's Cuban-Americans voted for Clinton, double his 1992 share. That
helped Clinton carry this traditionally Republican state.
Hispanic
votes also delivered the margin of victory to Democrats in several close
congressional races.
Why the increase in Hispanic turnout and
support for Democrats? The Republicans' anti-immigrant agenda , which was
aggressively covered by the growing Spanish-speaking media, had much to do with
it. Bob Dole angered many Hispanics by endorsing the move to make English the
official language of the United States. Dole also opposed public funding of
bilingual education and the printing of government materials in Spanish. The
Republican platform advocated that citizenship be denied to children born in
the United States to illegal immigrants.
However, Hispanics tend to
be socially conservative, and these instincts could eventually propel many of
them toward the GOP.
Despite their growing
influence in America-- salsa now outsells ketchup--Hispanics have yet to
realize anything near their political potential. Currently, voter turnout among
eligible Hispanics remains below the national average. But as the community's
population surges in the next century, both political parties are likely to
address that shortcoming.
